Japan's Food Self-Sufficiency Overview: Challenges, Impacts, and Future Strategies for National Security

Japan's low food self-sufficiency ratio has long been a concern for the government, which is focused on restoring agricultural production, improving self-sufficiency, and reducing reliance on imports. With almost 60% of its food imported, Japan is the world's third-largest importer of agriculture and food products. In 2023, the import value of Japan's agricultural products was USD 67.92 billion, with most of the commodities coming from the United States (US) and China.

Japan's dependence on imports is even higher than China's. A critical concern for the Japanese people is the dramatic drop in the proportion of food that the country can produce itself. Japan's officials pointed out that the self-sufficiency ratio for agricultural production will fall to 37% by 2045 if the country does not introduce significant policy changes. A low national self-sufficiency rate increases vulnerability to global trade tensions, compels competition for scarce commodities, and increases commodity prices.

Figure 1: Japan’s Agricultural Products Import Value 2019-2023

Source: Tridge, TradeMap

Factors Contributing to Japan's Low Food Self-Sufficiency Ratio

Various factors have contributed to Japan's low food self-sufficiency ratio. Increasing global economic interdependency is one factor. Although 80% of the Japanese people consider food self-sufficiency an urgent issue, Japan's food imports have steadily risen and account for 60% of domestic consumption.

Another factor is that the Japanese consume many foods and products not produced in Japan: organic fruit and grains imported mainly from Australia and Italy and an array of spices imported from Southeast Asia.

Japan is also importing maguro (fresh tuna), a key ingredient in Japanese cuisine and sushi, due to bluefin tuna overfishing in the Pacific Ocean and non-compliance with International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tuna (ICCAT) agreements by Atlantic Ocean exporters. Japan imports 75% of its fresh and frozen maguro from skipjack and yellowfin tuna. In comparison, 25% of the more expensive chūtoro and otoro cuts come from the open São Paulo market in Brazil and New Zealand.

The percentage of arable land is another restricting factor: Tokyo's 13.16 million people occupy less than 7,000 square kilometers (sq km), and Japan's arable land currently is less than 2,500 sq km (7,600 sq. ft.)—equal to the size of Philadelphia or more than nine times smaller than Nebraska. In addition, most of Japan's primary production occurs on less than one hectare (2.5 acres) of land. Small-scale farming is essential for producing high-quality rice, which is a key component of Japan's premium agricultural output. However, the volume is insufficient to meet the country’s overall consumption needs.

However, with an aging farming population, the Japanese government is compelled to reconsider and potentially reduce rice production in wet fields. There is a need to redirect farmers toward growing alternative crops before the situation becomes critical.In response, the Japanese government has shifted its agricultural policy from primary production and income support for farmers to food security and encouraging, attracting, and supporting "new-blood" farmers for larger-scale and more export-oriented farming before the older ones all retire.

Efforts and Strategies to Improve Japan's Food Self-Sufficiency Ratio

Japan's low food self-sufficiency ratio has long been the target of organizational efforts. In the 2005 Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture, and Rural Areas, the Japanese government outlined two key strategies: promoting intensive and efficient agriculture by increasing agricultural income through cost-reducing techniques, and developing the most suitable land for farming. The plan also included a policy to encourage local production for local consumption.

To improve local production prospects, government organizations are working on reforms surrounding the congestion of production areas by cultivating unique crops with specific individual characteristics, like wasabi cultivation, satsuma imo (Sweet potatoes) and shiitake mushrooms.

Fish are also being bred and raised in an environmentally friendly manner. Significant reforms in regional agriculture, including initiatives like "regional self-sufficient production and consumption," aims to improve Japan's food self-sufficiency. This approach focuses on proactive measures rather than just addressing unnecessary import reliance. Management policies aimed at strengthening the foundations of animal husbandry also focus on addressing low food self-sufficiency by enhancing local production.

Additionally, the growth prospect for organic produce is higher than ever as Japan trends toward healthier living and environmentally friendly practices. In 2022, the Japanese organic market was worth around EUR 2.13 billion and is expected to grow 8 to 10% per year up to 2032, according to a Japan Organic Food Market Market Research Japan Organic Food Market report. This growth is driven by rising health awareness and environmental sustainability. Although organic produce positively affects sustainability in terms of its ecological footprint, it may prove insufficient to deliver an adequate volume of food for the highly demanding Japanese market in the long term.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

Producing cash crops to earn foreign exchange to import food is the reverse of pursuing food self-sufficiency. In conclusion, while growing demand for organic produce could see the rise of niche markets, it could prove less sustainable in the long term. If the food self-sufficiency ratio is to rise to serve as a form of "welfare for farmers," there are concerns that the benefits will outweigh the costs.