From Advantage to Ambiguity: What 10% U.S. Tariff Means for Turkish Agrifood

The United States (US) trade policies, including potential adjustments to customs tariffs, present a complex situation for Turkish agricultural and food exporters. The US has implemented a new reciprocal tariffs policy, introducing a 10% baseline customs duty on imports from Türkiye, effective April 5, 2025. This move is part of a broader strategy to address trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. While Türkiye tariff rate is relatively low compared to competitors like China (145%), and the European Union (EU) (20%), the policy introduces both opportunities and challenges for Turkish exporters.

Positive Side: Lower Tariffs will Make Turkish Products Stand Out in the US

Türkiye's relatively lower tariff rate provides a competitive edge in the US market, especially for agricultural and food products. This advantage could allow Turkish exporters to capture market share from countries facing higher tariffs. For instance, Turkish products such as dried fruits, nuts, and olive oil may become more attractive to US buyers due to their lower landed costs compared to similar goods from China or the EU. Türkiye's established reputation for high-quality agricultural products could further bolster its position in the US market.

Here are key data for some of Türkiye’s most important agri-products:

• Hazelnuts: Türkiye dominates global hazelnut production. In 2023, US imports of Turkish hazelnuts (shelled and unshelled) were valued at USD 6,11 million, according to Tridge Trade data. Current US most favoured nation (MFN) tariffs on hazelnuts are relatively low at USD 14.1 centavos per kilogram (kg) or ad valorem equivalent (AVE) 1.53%.
• Dried Fruits: Türkiye is a leading exporter of dried figs and dried apricots. US imports of Turkish dried figs reached roughly USD 47.48 million in 2023, while dried apricots accounted for USD 67.88 million. These products face minimal MFN tariffs of USD 1.8 cents/kg and AVE 0.43%.
• Olive Oil: While facing competition from EU countries, Turkish olive oil exports to the US were valued at USD 90.24 million in 2023, benefiting from Türkiye's growing production and quality focus. Olive oil from Türkiye has applied tariffs of USD 5 cents/kg on contents and packaging, that is AVE 1.18%.

The export value of fruits and nuts has increased 44.60% since 2017, skyrocketing to USD 184.01 million in 2022, a record high.

Figure 1. Export Value Trend of Fruits and Nuts from Türkiye to United States 2017-2023

Source: Tridge

Tariff Burden Grows—Price-Sensitive Exports Face the Real Squeeze

Despite the competitive tariff rate, the 10% duty still represents an additional cost for Turkish exporters, potentially impacting profit margins. Products with tight pricing structures, such as fresh produce, may face difficulty maintaining competitiveness. Moreover, the US' policy of annual tariff reviews introduces uncertainty, as rates could be adjusted based on trade data and geopolitical developments. Türkiye's relative advantage exists primarily when competitors face higher duties (anti-dumping duties on Chinese garlic or specific quotas/tariffs on EU goods). A general tariff applied to Türkiye could erode this advantage if competitors' rates remain unchanged. This unpredictability necessitates careful market analysis and strategic planning by Turkish exporters.

China and Asia Emerge as Key Growth Arenas

To effectively navigate the complexities of the US market and potential tariff adjustments, Turkish exporters must adopt a diversified strategy encompassing continuous monitoring of US MFN tariffs, competitor duties (including anti-dumping/countervailing measures), and fluctuating freight costs to maintain precise landed cost analysis and understand true price positioning. Simultaneously, while the US remains a crucial market, mitigating policy risks necessitates active market diversification, leveraging the EU Customs Union and expanding into promising regions like the Middle East and Asia. 

Concurrently, expanding into the MENA region, driven by geographical proximity, cultural ties, and significant infrastructure spending which is creating demand for Turkish construction materials and Halal foods. Additionally, it offers substantial growth potential. Furthermore, targeting burgeoning Asian markets is vital; for instance, China's imports of Turkish hazelnuts have markedly increased, sometimes surpassing those from the US, highlighting opportunities for agricultural exports alongside machinery and minerals in this vast consumer base. More specifically, from January to July 2024, Turkey's agri-food exports to China increased by 11.6% YoY to USD 1.8 billion, with hazelnuts marking USD 51.5 million in export value in the observed period.

Success also depends on shifting focus towards value-added and niche products—emphasizing quality certifications like US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Organic, unique regional appellations, specialty processing, and innovative packaging—which command premium pricing and offer better margin buffers against tariffs, differentiating offerings like single-origin olive oils or specific fig varieties. 

Crucially, fostering transparent, long-term partnerships with US importers through collaborative forecasting and risk-sharing, alongside staying informed on US trade policy developments via export associations, government bodies, and market intelligence platforms, is essential for managing volatility and securing market access.

Adapt or Miss Out: Türkiye’s Chance to Lead in a Shifting Trade Order

The US' new tariff policy is expected to reshape the global trade landscape. Countries with higher tariffs may redirect their exports to alternative markets, potentially increasing competition for Türkiye in regions like the Middle East and Asia. Türkiye's customs union with the EU could complicate its trade strategy, as it may need to align with EU retaliatory measures against US tariffs. In conclusion, while the new US tariffs present challenges, they also offer opportunities for Turkish exporters to strengthen their foothold in the US market. By adopting proactive strategies and mitigating uncertainties, Türkiye can leverage its competitive advantage to thrive in the evolving global trade landscape.