Promising Outlook for Chilean Walnuts in 2022/23

Published Apr 27, 2022

Chile had a record 2021/22 marketing year, both in terms of production and exports of walnuts. Production in 2021/22 reached an impressive 153,000 mt and could climb even further to 170,000 mt in 2022/23. Chile exported 148,152 mt of walnuts (on an in-shell basis) in 2021/22, and exports to India skyrocketed by 85% to 20,644 mt. Chilean walnut exports benefited from the shipping delays in California, especially to India. However, the situation in California has improved and walnuts should flow out of California at a faster rate for the last 5 months of the marketing year. This clashes with Chile’s main export season, meaning there will be stiff competition in terms of walnut exports between the two countries.

2021/22 Marketing Year Ends on a High, Promising Outlook for 2022/23

The Chilean Walnut marketing year, which ended in March, was both a record in terms of production and exports. The 2021/22 crop reached 153,000 mt, 10% higher than in 2020/21 and more than double the crop of 5 years ago. Exports for the 2021/22 marketing year were also a record, at 148,152 mt, and 13% higher than in 2020/21. The prospects for the 2022/23 marketing year are excellent as the crop could be as high as 170,000 mt according to industry estimates. Chile has been expanding the area under walnuts, and production is expected to top 200,000 mt in 2024 and come close to 250,000 mt by 2030, according to Chilenut estimates. Chile’s exports have increased in line with production and could continue the momentum into the future, however, there will be stiff competition from the US in the next few months.

Chilean Exports Benefited From US Logistic Woes, but Situation Could Reverse

Exports to India and Turkey, the two largest markets for Chilean Walnuts, increased significantly throughout 2021. In-shell walnut exports to India soared by 85%, to 20,664 mt, while in-shell exports to Turkey increased by 49% to 19,407 mt. Shelled exports to these two countries only make up a small portion of the total, at 138 mt to India and 349 mt to Turkey.

Chilean walnuts took a large chunk of the US market share to India in 2021 and it was the first time that Chile exported more walnuts than the US to India in a calendar year. Chile’s market share of India’s in-shell walnut imports was an incredible 78% in 2021, compared to only 32% in 2020.

Chile’s gain in India’s market share came as a result of the backlogs and bottlenecks in California’s harbors, which dragged down US walnut exports. However the situation in California is improving, just when Chile’s harvest and main export season is taking off. US walnut exports in March (49,625 mt) were the second-highest monthly export figure for its 2021/22 marketing year, but this comes at a time when US exports usually decrease and Chilean exports usually increase. The US has large walnut inventories available and will be eager to export as much as possible in the next five months before the new crop comes in. This could provide stiff competition for Chilean exports over its typical peak export season.