South African Pecan Exports Indicate Bumper 2023 Crop, Positive Outlook for 2024

Challenges to Production in 2023

The South African pecan crop was estimated at 22,500 metric tons (mt) to 23,000 mt (on an in-shell basis) in the latest estimate made in Nov-23 by the South African Pecan Nut Producers Association NPC (SAPPA). This estimate was lower than initial estimates, putting the crop at between 25,000 mt and 28,000 mt. In 2023, the industry faced several production and logistical challenges.

One of the hurdles the industry is grappling with is the frequent power cuts, or loadshedding, plaguing the country. Most pecan orchards are irrigated, and power cuts interfere with irrigation and fertigation practices. Weather patterns have also become more unpredictable, with hail damage during the flowering stage and unseasonably late rainfall during the harvest further impacting production.

Pecans exhibit a bi-annual production cycle, with a year of high yields followed by a year of low yields. The enormous record crop of 31,846 mt in 2022, lead to a drop in crop production in 2023. While these factors negatively impacted production, the crop could be adjusted slightly higher when final production figures are released by SAPPA, normally in February.

Exports Exceed Expectations

South Africa’s pecan export seasonality correlates very closely with the pecan harvest. 95% of annual exports occur during the months of May to November. From May-23 to Nov-23, South Africa exported an estimated 24,500 mt of pecans (converted to an in-shell basis), with exports estimated to reach 25,200 to 25,500 mt for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY). Even considering that there were carry-over inventories of 1,000 mt to 1,500 mt from the bumper 2022 crop, exports would still indicate a crop of more than 23,000 mt.

Future Production Outlook

South Africa's pecan production soared from under 10,000 mt just a decade ago to the enormous record 31,846 mt produced in 2022. According to SAPPA’s preliminary projections, production in 2023 could reach an enormous 37,000 mt, based on trees entering maturity and an average yield of 1.6 mt per hectare (ha), based on estimates for an on-year in the production cycle. This would exceed baseline projections, but with 2025 being an off-year, it could again fall short of baseline projections. While variations between on and off years can be reduced with modern fertilization and irrigation scheduling, SAPPA observed that variations have, in fact, become more pronounced. This is largely due to varying weather and the occurrence of La Niña and El Niño weather patterns over the last few years. The pecan industry in South Africa is comparatively young and is based on modern production practices and the application of highly research-driven production techniques. However, good climatic conditions in 2022 led to a bumper crop and trees expended large amounts of energy to produce these high yields. This inevitably led to a lower crop in 2023, and the cycle continues. Even with good production practices, this variation could take several more seasons to even out.

Further Expansion to China Possible

Around 90% of South Africa’s exports are destined for China. Virtually all of these pecans are exported in-shell. Due to the high quality of South African pecans and their popularity in the country, China is expected to remain the primary destination. Another factor contributing to the preference for South African pecans is the country's physical proximity to China compared to the US and Mexico, its two main rivals. Should the 2024 crop indeed reach around 37,000 mt, further expansion into China remains possible as South African pecans displace more pecans from the US and Mexico, continuing the trend of the last five years.