Super Bowl and Avocados: Avos are getting ready to be shipped

Fresh Avocado

Mexico

United States

Market & Price Trends

Published Dec 11, 2020

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the NFL’s Super Bowl seems to be held as scheduled next year. Consumption of avocados for the Super Bowl, one of the largest sports events in the world, shall maintain its volume from last year. Nevertheless, the price is expected to be lower than that of last year, given lower demand due to the pandemic, while logistics limitations are expected to put a marginal upward pressure on the price.

Mexico steps in for Superbowl season

Super Bowl Sunday is the most anticipated sports event of the year for Americans. It is the final game of the National Football League (NFL) Championship and it happens on the first Sunday of February every year and it will take place on February 7th in 2021. It is estimated that just in a single day, U.S. Super Bowl viewers consume close to 48,000 MT of avocados in guacamole form. In comparison, the average import volume of avocados per month in the US is 80,000 MT, meaning that in a single day it is consumed the equivalent of more than half of a month’s volume of imported avocados.

Every January there has been a surge in imports of avocados by about 30% on average import volume for the last 5 years in comparison to the average of other months to supply this massive demand for guacamole dips for the Super Bowl Sunday. 13.2 million pounds of avocado are consumed in the US during the Super Bowl – the most that the avocados are consumed in a single day within the US.

Source: Tridge

The preparation for the demand typically starts months prior to the game day, which is held in early February. As the Californian avocado season finishes by November and does not participate in supplying for the big game, Mexico has been the main supplier, representing more than 95% of the total avocados consumed in the states. Mexico happens to be the country in the middle of the high season for its harvest and potentially the only country with enough volumes to supply the massive demand during this period. The Michoacán state is the biggest supplier of avocados to the US and is the only state in Mexico currently certified by the American government under strict rules to export avocados to the US, in order to protect the spread of diseases in American orchards.

Source: California Avocado Growers

Maria Castañedas, VP of MexWorld Consulting, a major trader from Michoacán with the extensive accumulated knowledge of avocado exports to the US, has commented that the preparations for the exports of the avocados for the Superbowl already started and that shipments carrying unripe avocados for the game shall start leaving Michoacán packing houses in a couple of weeks. Shipments usually start by mid-December and prevail throughout January so all the amounts necessary for the big day get to their destinations on time.

Although the world is still facing the uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic, Castañedas feels that the consumption of guacamoles during the Superbowl won’t be affected. “There is certainly going to be less consumption by the sports bars, but based on the amounts of avocados that have been negotiated with us so far, I feel no notable change in the demand and people will still going to enjoy their bowl of guacamoles at their homes.” She expects the volume of exported avocados for January will total around 120 thousand MT.

However, one of the challenges faced by the Mexican exporters at the moment is the reduction in the availability of cold containers for the transport of avocados, Castañedas added. The pandemic has reduced the Mexican population incomes and resulted in the depreciation of MXN against USD which in turn led to the reduction of imports. This resulted in a smaller number of containers that see their way back to Mexico, limiting logistics and making it more costly than last year.

Source: Exchangerates.org.uk

Possible Upward Pressure on Prices Around the Superbowl,but still lower than 2019

The pricing depends on many factors such as availability, expected production volume, conditions on the weather for the harvest, the demand, logistics, etc. Castañedas reported that avocado farmgate prices at the moment are 40% lower than in the previous year due to a surplus of volume caused by the decrease in imports by the US resulted by a reduction of orders from restaurants and bars which are still not back to normal due to COVID-19. Since MY 2020/21 production avocados will have good results due to favorable weather, prices might get affect upward only by the aforementioned logistic limitation. Competition for freight may increase costs and prices by 5-10% compared to the previous months, but traders are trying to avoid that by booking and scheduling the freight in advance.

Wholesale Price of Mexican Avocados in CA, USA