Türkiye’s Hazelnut Exports to MENA Region Plummeted by 36% In 2022, but Demand Could Recover Faster Than in Europe

Hazelnut Kernel

Published Jan 16, 2023

Türkiye’s hazelnut exports dropped to 312,564 mt for the 2022 calendar year, a 9% annual decrease. Exports were stifled by higher living costs globally, forcing consumers to opt for cheaper alternatives to hazelnuts. Exports to Europe, Türkiye’s largest market for hazelnuts, decreased 7% YoY to 256,358 mt. Exports to the MENA region showed the largest decline, falling 36% YoY to only 12,830 mt. The MENA region was one of the worse affected by increased living costs, but nut demand could also recover comparatively faster if living costs continue to decrease. The Black Sea Exporters Association (KIB) expects demand from Europe to remain weak in 2023, but rapid expansion in 2024.

Türkiye produces around two-thirds of the globe's hazelnuts and Europe accounts for around 80% global hazelnut trade. This means that Turkish production and European demand are normally the key drivers in the hazelnut market. However, the drop in demand from “smaller” export destinations, especially from the MENA region, was severe enough to significantly impact global trade.

In total, Türkiye’s hazelnut exports dropped to 312,564 mt in 2022, a 9% YoY decrease. Exports to Europe were 256,358 mt, in 2022, a 7% YoY decrease. However, the decline in Europe was not as pronounced as in other markets. As a result, Europe’s market share in Turkish hazelnut exports increased from 80% in 2021 to 82% in 2022. Furthermore, Italy, the world’s second-largest hazelnut producer is expecting a crop of 100,000 mt (in-shell basis) in 2022/23, which is 89% more than in 2021/22. France and Spain are also anticipating higher production in 2022/23. All-in-all this indicates that European hazelnut consumption has been fairly resilient compared to other regions.

The largest decreases in imports from Türkiye were recorded in Asia and Africa, and more specifically in the MENA region (using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization definition for the region). Türkiye exported 20,168 mt of hazelnuts to the MENA region in 2021, which gave it a market share of 6.0%. In 2022 Turkish exports to the region dropped to 12,830 mt and only 4.2% market share. The MENA region was one of the hardest hit by rampant inflation and increased living costs throughout 2022, resulting in the drop in hazelnut demand. Food costs in Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, soared as the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted global wheat supplies, which in turn forced consumers to cut back on their food budgets. Turkish hazelnut exports to Egypt fell by 54% YoY, from 7,216 mt in 2021 to 3,323 mt in 2022. Egypt was the world’s 16th largest hazelnut importer in 2021, but it will place much lower once the list for 2022 is finalized.

In the rest of Asia, Turkish exports to China, the world’s 7th largest hazelnut consumer, showed a significant decline, from 11,055 mt in 2021 to 8,335 mt in 2022. Chinese lockdowns and supply chain disruptions, as well as a rapid increase in their own nut production, were reasons for the decrease.

In 2022, Brazil became the largest export destination for Turkish hazelnuts in the Americas, from 3rd place in 2021. Turkish hazelnut exports to Brazil increased by 3% YoY to 5,377 mt in 2022. The US swapped places with Brazil, falling from 1st to 3rd after a 15% YoY decline, to 4,472 mt. The US has an oversupply of other nuts, which are generally much cheaper than hazelnuts. In some cases, these nuts were used as substitutes for hazelnuts. Türkiye’s exports to Canada were down 1% YoY to 5,159 mt.

Source: KIB

The KIB expects weak hazelnut demand coming from Europe to continue in 2023. According to the KIB’s Chairman of the Products Sector Committee, Mehmet Cirav, European demand could remain subdued in 2023 due to high living costs and the continued energy crises, but he forecasts a rapid recovery in 2024.

While the MENA region is a much smaller market than Europe, demand could be rejuvenated faster in this region. The cost of staple foods in the region, for example, wheat, has already dropped back to levels observed at the end of 2021. A lower cost associated with staples could free up some space in the food budget. This could mean a return of hazelnuts as an ingredient in popular Middle Eastern dishes such as spice blends or dukkah, and desserts like halva and baklava.