W6 Soybean Update: Soybean Harvest Updates and Export Projections in Brazil, Argentina, EU, and Ukraine for the 2023/24 Season

Soybean Harvest Trends and Challenges in Brazil from the 2023/24 Season

Brazil's soybean harvest reached 16% of cultivated area in 2023/24, the second highest ever recorded at this time of year. Primarily driven by Mato Grosso and Paraná, the index may experience potential productivity losses throughout Feb-24 due to hot weather and limited rainfall in the southern region.

Farmers in Parana, Brazil, have experienced the most advanced soybean harvest since 2019, with 19% of the 2023/24 crop already harvested. This advancement can be attributed to high temperatures and earlier planting, which have shortened the growth cycle. The Department of Rural Economics reduced soybean production by 2.6 million tons.

Brazil's soybean exports are predicted to decrease to 7.3 million tons in Feb-24, down from 7.547 million tons in 2023, according to the National Association of Cereal Exporters (ANEC). Despite a record high in Jan-24, exports are not expected to surpass the previous year's.

Argentina's Soybean Planted Area and Production Forecast Revised Upwards for 2023/24 Season

Argentina's soybean planted area for the 2023/24 season has been revised to 17.2 million hectares (ha), a 3% increase from the initial estimate of 16.8 million ha, and the national production forecast has been increased to 49.6 million tons.

EU Soybean Harvest Projected to Increase by 7% YoY in the 2023/24 Season

The gross harvest of soybeans in the European Union (EU) is projected to reach 3.1 million metric tons (mmt), marking a 7% year-over-year (YoY) increase, with harvesting anticipated to occur on 1.1 million ha, an increase of 0.1 million ha.

Ukraine's Soybean Exports Surged by 18% YoY in 2023/24 Season

Ukraine has exported 1.9 million tons of soybeans since the beginning of the 2023/24 season, marking an 18% YoY increase. The record soybean harvest of 4.8 million tons in 2023 is the primary driver behind this export growth. Analysts foresee soybean processing reaching between 1.5 and 1.6 million tons in the current season.

Moreover, the dry autumn has disrupted rapeseed sowing in Ukraine, leading to soybean and sunflower dominance in crops. Farmers are shifting to soybean cultivation despite negative sunflower yield impacts. Agricultural experts and the Ministry of Agriculture are promoting diversification for income and security.