Webinar Recap: The Impact of Trade Wars and Policy Changes on Global Agricultural Commodities

Tridge’s February webinar, “The Impact of Trade Wars and Policy Changes on Global Agricultural Commodities”, explored the effect of trade restrictions, sanctions, increased tariffs, and policy changes on agricultural trade.

Rene Salinas, a global market analyst specializing in meat and seafood gave a presentation on the current trade wars and their impact on agricultural commodities. Rene pointed out how inflationary pressure, as a remnant of the pandemic, led to more than 135 policy changes in the first half of 2022. Policy changes, sanctions, export bans, and other trade regulations, in many cases, exacerbated inflation and led to disruptions in trade flows.

Mzingaye Ndubiwa, who specializes in sugar, coffee, and value-added products, discussed the difficulties facing African markets, the impact on inputs due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and trade disruptions due to Brexit and political tensions in the Taiwan region in his presentation on recent policy changes and effects on global markets. Mzi also offered solutions to the problems facing African markets, such as diversifying their markets.

The presentations were followed by a panel discussion where the panelists, Ferhat Erdem and Carlos Iborra, were asked how trade wars and policy changes affected global agricultural trade. The panelists discussed the uncertainty and unpredictability of the agricultural supply chain due to these policy changes. Panelists were also asked how buyers and suppliers can avoid trade war disruptions. Diversification of markets and clear communication are some of the ways mentioned by the panelists, providing specific examples of how these issues have affected agricultural trade. The third question put to the panelists was about the costs associated with policy changes and how end consumers will react to price hikes. The speakers discuss how challenging it is for suppliers and sellers to pass on the increased cost of goods to consumers, resulting in less profit for producers. Although sale prices are currently higher than in previous campaigns, the increase in sales prices is not enough to offset the increase in production costs. Finally, end consumers may look for alternatives, similar-quality goods, and may prefer to be price-oriented instead of quality-oriented. Panelists were also asked questions posted by the audience about freight cost expectations and the Black Sea trade corridor situation. 

Click here to view the recording of the webinar, or click here to view the slides.