W33: Maize (Corn) Update

In W33 in the maize (corn) landscape, the International Grains Council (IGC) expects global corn production to reach 1.221 billion metric tons (mt) in the 2023/24 season, an increase of 1 million metric tons (mmt) from the Jul-23 estimate. This upward adjustment can be attributed to Ukraine’s corn production of 27 mmt, an improvement from the 24 mmt in the Jul-23 forecast but slightly below the 2022/23 level of 27.7 mmt. Notably, Ukraine's 2023/24 maize exports are anticipated to reach 18 mmt despite better crop prospects. Due to ongoing geopolitical challenges, the 2023/24 Ukrainian maize export estimate is considerably lower than the 2022/23 level of 29.2 mmt.

China's corn production is expected to reach 277.4 mmt in the 2023/24 season, lower than the Jul-23 estimate of 279.4 mmt. The downward revision is primarily due to concerns arising from recent flooding in the major grain-producing northeast region, which has heightened worries about disease and infestation.

United States (US) corn farmers are expecting the second-largest corn crop on record in 2023. This expectation is due to the substantial rainfall received in Jul-23, which helped the crop during its crucial growth phase. This situation helped mitigate the initial dry conditions and high summer temperatures. A strong US crop is expected to boost domestic stocks, which are forecasted to rise as demand for US corn exports declines. The decline is due to Brazil’s extensive corn harvest and is expected to overtake the US as the world's largest corn supplier. US farmers indicate that drought-tolerant genes and other enhancements to genetically modified corn enabled the crop to withstand severe drought across much of the Midwest.

In its Aug-23 report, the National Supply Company (Conab) expects Brazil’s 2022/23 safrinha corn production to reach 100.2 mmt, an upward revision of 2.1 mmt compared to the Jul-23 estimate. This positive adjustment is attributed to improved corn yield prospects expected to be harvested from 17.1 million hectares (ha). Consequently, the total corn harvest is expected to reach 130 mmt harvested from 22.2 million ha in 2022/23, an improvement compared to the 113.1 mmt in 2021/22 harvested from 21.6 million ha. The 2022/23 domestic corn consumption outlook remains unchanged at 79.4 mmt. Conab also expects Brazilian corn exports in the 2022/23 season to reach 50 mmt, an increase of 2 mmt compared to the Jul-23 estimate. Brazil’s 2022/23 corn ending stock is expected to increase by 0.2 mmt to 10.5 mmt.

Lastly, the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange (BCBA) reports that the corn harvest in Argentina progressed to 90.2% of the suitable area in W32, a notable increase of 9.3% week-on-week (WoW). The national average productivity stood at 5,030 kilograms per ha, and the production estimate remained steady at 34 mmt. BCBA indicates that the corn crop rated as good or excellent condition increased from 13% in W31 to 14% in W32. The corn crops in normal conditions decreased slightly from 45% to 44%. The portion classified as fair or poor condition remained unchanged at 42%.