W10 Canola/Rapeseed Update: EU Rapeseed Harvest Expected to Dip in 2024, Russia Imposes Export Ban Until August 31, 2024

Published 2024년 3월 15일

In W10 in the canola oil landscape, the EU expects a rapeseed harvest of approximately 18.3 mmt in 2024, slightly down from previous estimates, with reduced production in countries like Romania and Poland. Russia has reinstated a ban on rapeseed exports until August 31, 2024, to support domestic processing and livestock farming, allowing exceptions for certain regions and international agreements. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, interest from European buyers in the 2024 rapeseed harvest has grown due to potential shortages in the EU, leading to expectations of rising prices for Ukrainian rapeseed forwards.

EU Rapeseed Harvest Forecast Revised Slightly Downward

Rapeseed harvest in the European Union (EU) will reach approximately 18.3 million metric tons (mmt) in 2024, down by 0.1 mmt from the previous month's estimate. This forecast suggests a decrease of 1.6 mmt compared to last year's harvest. The decline is expected to be most significant in countries like Romania and Poland, leading to increased imports of oilseeds from Ukraine and Australia. Additionally, due to shipping issues in the Red Sea, purchases of Canadian canola are anticipated to intensify.

Russian Government Reinstates Ban on Rapeseed Exports Until August 31, 2024

The Russian Government has reinstated a ban on rapeseed exports until August 31, 2024, aiming to optimize domestic processing capacities and support livestock farmers. The Prime Minister signed the decree, exempting exports to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, permitting deliveries through the Zabaykalsk checkpoint to China. Exceptions include international intergovernmental agreements and humanitarian aid provisions. This measure aims to ensure the utilization of domestic rapeseed oil production and provide necessary processing products for livestock.

Russia’s Krasnoyarsk to Expand Rapeseed Cultivation by 23.3% YoY in 2024

Krasnoyarsk, Russia's leading region in rapeseed cultivation, is set to increase the area under this crop by 23.3% year-on-year (YoY) in 2024, reaching 265.5 thousand hectares (ha), as announced by the Minister of Agriculture. Overall, the sown area of agricultural crops in the region will increase by 30 thousand ha to 1.512 million ha, with rapeseed occupying a significant portion. The Krasnoyarsk Territory has maintained its position as the top producer of rapeseed seeds in Russia for five consecutive years, with exports mainly directed to China, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

Ukraine's Old-Crop Rapeseed Stocks Nearly Depleted, New Harvest Draws European Interest

Ukraine's stocks of old-crop rapeseed have nearly depleted as of March 5, with minimal trade activity observed. However, interest from European buyers grew in the new harvest of Ukrainian rapeseed for 2024. This interest is due to the expected reduction in rapeseed production in EU countries due to delayed sowing caused by heavy fall precipitation. European processors are concerned about potential raw material shortages, leading to demand for Ukrainian oilseeds for delivery from Aug-24 to Sept-24. Consequently, prices for Ukrainian rapeseed forwards are expected to increase further in the coming months, with contracts rising in Mar-24 to Apr-24. Prices Delivered at Place (DAP) Germany are currently offered at USD 442.93 to 453.86 per metric ton (mt).

ABARES Finalizes Estimates for Australian Canola Harvest

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) has finalized its estimates for the recent winter-crop harvest, with canola at 5.68 mmt. Improved production in Victoria and New South Wales is expected to offset reduced production in Western Australia. The harvest progressed earlier and faster than in recent years, driven by hot and dry finishing conditions. However, widespread rainfall resulted in some harvest delays and a mixed quality profile for the national wheat crop, with higher proportions of high-protein grades in certain areas but lower protein grades in others.

Untimely Rainfall and Hailstorms in India's Top Producing Regions Impact Winter Crops

According to industry and government officials, untimely rainfall and hailstorms in W10 have adversely affected winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas in India's top-producing regions, leading to delays in harvesting . The adverse weather conditions could limit the growth in wheat production and complicate the government's efforts to build stocks. Lower-than-expected rapeseed production may necessitate continued overseas purchases of palm, sunflower, and soybean oil, as rapeseed harvesting has been delayed due to the rainfall.