W11 Durian Update: Eastern Thailand's Durian Production Declined by Over 50% in 2024, and Vietnam's Durian Market Share in China Rises Despite High Prices

Published 2024년 3월 22일

In W11 in the durian landscape, dry weather conditions are anticipated to cause a more than 50% decline in durian production in Eastern Thailand in 2024, despite an increase in planting. Vietnam experienced a remarkable increase in durian imports, exceeding 1,000% YoY in 2023, reaching USD 493 million. Additionally, Vietnam's market share in China is rising despite the high prices, with competition from the Philippines and Malaysia.

Eastern Thailand's Durian Production to Drop Over 50% in 2024

Due to dry weather conditions, durian production in Eastern Thailand, including Chanthaburi, Rayong, and Trat, is anticipated to decrease by more than 50% in 2024, despite an expansion in durian planting. The durian planting area in these eastern provinces is set to increase to 110 thousand hectares (ha) in 2024, an increase of 7.9 thousand ha from 2023. However, durian production is expected to be impacted by climate-related factors.

The anticipated decrease in production has led to a price surge and an increase in advanced ordering agreements. To ensure quality, the Agricultural Extension Department of Trat Province offers free 'pre-inspection' services for durians. The durian season in Trat typically runs from March to July, during which strict quality and safety standards are enforced. Consumers are encouraged to report instances of substandard durians being sold to local police stations and other relevant departments.

China's Vietnamese Durians Imports Surged Over 1,000% YoY in 2023

According to a Customs statistics report released on Mar-24, China's import of Vietnamese durians soared in 2023, reaching 493 thousand tons valued at USD 2.1 billion. This represents a remarkable 1,107% YoY increase in quantity and a 1,035.8% YoY increase in export value.

Durian Prices Remain High Despite Growing Competition in China

Durian prices in Vietnam's Southwest, Southeast, and Central Highlands regions are currently high. In the Southwest region, prices for Ri6 durian range from USD 4.85 to 5.50 per kilogram (VND 120,000 to 136,000/kg), while Thai durian prices stood between USD 7.48 and 7.69/kg (VND 185,000 and 190,000/kg). In the Southeast and Central Highlands region, Ri6 durian and bucket Ri6 durian prices range from USD 4.65 to 5.46/kg (VND 115,000 to 135,000/kg), while Thai durian prices between USD 8.41 to 8.49/kg (VND 208,000 and 210,000/kg). Prices for Thai durian range from USD 7.48 to 7.69/kg (VND 185,000 to 190,000/kg).

Even with high prices in Vietnam, the market share of Vietnamese durian in China is increasing, with China's durian imports growing by an average of 27.8% from 2019 to 2023. However, competition is increasing as the Philippines and Malaysia are also gearing up to export fresh durian to China. Enhanced delivery systems are anticipated to increase durian consumption in China, potentially leading to Vietnam's durian export turnover reaching around USD 3.5 billion by 2024. Global durian production is forecasted to increase by up to 10% by 2030.