W12: Weekly Maiz (corn) Update

United States

Midwest Farmers in the US Intend to Plant More Corn and Wheat (Mar 23)

In an Ag Access survey with almost 400 respondents, farmers said they would dedicate 27% more acres to corn and 32% more to wheat.

China

China Is Increasing Its Corn Imports, Which May Increase the Demand for Ukrainian Corn (Mar 21)

China has increased its corn imports, adding optimism to Ukrainian and American exporters. In February 2023, it amounted to 5.3M tons, 14% higher than in 2022. China also imported wheat, barley, and sorghum. Competition for the Chinese market will intensify in the second half of the season. US exports are only 17.5M tons. Corn exports from the US and Argentina are offset by increases from Brazil, India, and Ukraine.

Argentina

Corn Harvest in Argentina Records Average Productivity  (Mar 23)

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) updated its reports on the 2022/23 corn crop in Argentina, highlighting the reduction in crop yields as harvesting progresses. The BCBA currently rates Argentina's corn crops with 6% as good or excellent, 36% as fair, and 58% as fair or poor, and 44% of the area has adequate or excellent water conditions. Despite rains in the center and south of the country's agricultural zone, the thermo-hydric stress suffered by crops has left irreversible impacts on productive potential.

Ukraine

Corn Prices in the Ports Do Not Exceed USD 202/T in Ukraine (Mar 21)

In Ukraine, the purchase prices for corn remain at a low level of $198-202/t or UAH 7.8-8K/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports as a result of the artificial delay by Russian inspectors as part of the SCC of vessels to the ports of Ukraine.

Brazil

Farmers Have Planted 61% Of Their Corn Crops in Parana, Brazil (Mar 20)

Farmers in Parana have ramped up their safrinha corn planting, with 61% planted and rated 1% average and 99% good. Some farmers are planting outside the recommended window, while others are opting for an alternative crop.

Corn Planting Reaches 97.94% In Mato Grosso (Mar 20)

The advance in corn sowing in Mato Grosso was only 1.50% points in the weekly variation, with 97.94% of the 7.4Mha cleared for the crop already sown.

Brazil Will Be the Largest Corn Exporter (Mar 20)

Brazil is already the largest producer and exporter of soy in the world, but the USDA forecasts that Brazil will export more corn than the US this 2023. It is due to the continued expansion of corn as a second crop and the recent opening to the Chinese market, which could lead to Brazil becoming the world's largest exporter of corn.

Corn Market Continues to Drag in Brazil, With High Freights Limiting Business (Mar 20)

The average price of a bag of corn in Brazil decreased from USD 16.48 (BRL 83.84) to USD 16.42 (BRL 83.51), with prices in Cascavel, Paraná, Mogiana, Rondonópolis, Erechim, Uberlândia, and Rio Verde all decreasing. Exports from Brazil had revenues of USD 219.731M in March 2023, with an average daily value of USD 27.466M. The total amount of corn exported by the country was 731.

Line-up Foresees Shipments of 1.012MMT of Corn Through Brazil Between March and May 2023 (Mar 21)

The line-up indicated that 1.012M tons of corn could be exported between March and May 2023, with 460.1K tons already shipped.

Agroconsult Sees New Records for Corn Production and Exports From Brazil (Mar 21)

Brazilian corn production and exports are expected to reach new historic highs, with an estimated harvest of 125.5M tons in the 2022/23 season and shipments with the potential to reach 51.9M tons in the year.

Corn Exports From Brazil May Fall in the 2022/23 Cycle (Mar 21)

Brazil's corn exports in 2022/23 are estimated at 40-45M tons, with the US Department of Agriculture considering different periods. Brazil is on the way to a new record harvest of 125M tons due to higher yields in some states. El Nio has restricted cold air, leading to less risk to crops.

Planting of Brazilian Second Crop of Corn Is Advancing (Mar 21)

The Brazilian market is trying to organize logistics in the middle of a record soybean crop, rains, and difficulties with roads and ports. The delay in second-crop planting could change the market, and the avian flu panic could lead to a decrease in domestic demand in 2024.

External Demand for Brazilian Corn Will Remain Firm (Mar 22)

China's growth projections for 2023 have improved, with the Chinese government setting a growth target of 5% and the IMF projecting a 5.2% increase. China has authorized more than 90 Brazilian companies to export corn, signaling firm demand for the national cereal. The price indicator for the off-season remains positive, with official estimates and private consultants continuing to point to record national production. NOAA has officially ended La Nia, favoring the entry of polar air masses through southern Brazil during the autumn/winter months. USDA projects larger US corn acreage in 2023/24, with 36.8Mha planted and production projected at 383.2M tons.

Corn Shipments Totaled 1.2M Tons in Brazil (Mar 24)

Corn prices in Chicago remained stable, with the US being the primary supplier to China. In Brazil, prices were under negative pressure, with the average value of USD 16.03/bag (BRL 81.35/bag) in Rio Grande do Sul and the main local markets working with USD 14.98/bag (BRL 76/bag). The 2022/23 summer harvest reached 51% of the area, while the second crop may reach 97.2M tons. The total area of the cereal in Brazil is estimated at 22Mha, with a slight reduction of 0.8% in the annual comparison.

Domestic Market of Corn Loses Strength Due to Growers’ Selling Interest in Brazil (Mar 24)

Brazil is planting an important portion of its main crop in March, but the planting conditions are still favorable, and there is no sign of a critical situation or significant cut in the area. It is not the first time and will not be the last time.

Corn Planting Still Behind Schedule, but Harvest Should Be a Record in Brazil (Mar 24)

In Brazil, official data continue to show record yields, despite the delay in planting the second corn crop. In this context, Cepea researchers indicate that, while producers are concentrated on fieldwork, domestic consumers only buy new batches when there is a need to replenish stocks. Even so, some buyers end up having logistical difficulties with the advance of the soybean harvest.

Indonesia

Corn Prices Rise Quietly in Indonesia (Mar 20)

Domestic corn prices have been rising, with the farmer level increasing by USD 0.0040-0.41/kg (IDR 60-6.08k/kg) and the producer level falling by USD 0.0013-0.33/kg (IDR 20-4.51k/kg). Every month, the price jumped from February 2023 to March 2023.

Kenya

Kenyan Traders Fail to Secure Maize Imports Over Rising Prices (Mar 23)

Traders have failed to secure maize imports from the overseas market on the back of high international prices.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s Corn Imports in the First 2 Months of 2023 Decreased in Both Volume and Value (Mar 20)

Brazil is the primary market supplying corn to Vietnam in the first two months of 2023, accounting for over 57% of the country's total corn import volume and turnover. February 2023 alone reached 638,359 tons, with an average price of USD 337.70/ton, down 20.7% in volume, down 20% in turnover.