Global
ISO Cuts Global Sugar Surplus Forecast for 2022/23 (Mar 21)
The ISO quarterly report shows that the global sugar surplus in the 2022/23 crop year (October-September) is forecast at 4.2M MT, down from the previous forecast of 6.2M MT. A Reuters poll of traders and analysts in early February 2023 had averaged a 2022/23 surplus at 3.25M MT. ISO estimates that global sugar production in the 2022/23 crop will increase to 180.4M MT, down from the previous forecast of 182.1M MT. Sugar production in India fell to 34.3M MT from the previous forecast of 35.5M MT. India produces less sugar due to the early ripening of the cane crop and is damaged by adverse weather in the main growing regions. Output outlook in Western Europe is also forecast to decrease to 15.2M MT from 16.6M MT previously. Sugar consumption was revised up modestly from 176M MT to 176.3M MT.
World Sugar Market on March 21 (Mar 21)
The price of raw sugar for the May contract in May 2023 on the ICE floor fell 0.19 cents, down 0.9%, to USD 451.51/MT (20.48 cents/lb). The price of white sugar for delivery of the same term on the London floor lost USD 4.5, down 0.8%, and closed at USD 580.6/MT. Dealers say prices are picking up well amid weakness in other markets, partly supported by the prospect of reduced output in India, while sugar mills continue to close at a faster pace than in other markets with the previous one.
World Sugar Prices Rose Sharply in February (Mar 21)
The February rebound was mainly due to a downward revision of the 2022/23 Indian sugar production forecast, which dampened the export outlook for the current season. Concerns about lower export availability from India amid strong global import demand were further supported by global sugar prices. However, good harvest progress in Thailand and heavy rainfall in Brazil's key growing areas prevented a larger monthly price increase. The decline in international crude oil and ethanol prices in Brazil also contributed to reducing upward pressure on global sugar prices.
Tridge Analysis: Global Sugar Prices in March 2023 Have Decreased After Hitting a Record High (Mar 24)
March 2023 has seen some volatility in prices on the world sugar market as a result of a number of factors, including the lower ethanol prices, the decline in India's sugar production, the promising harvest in Brazil, and the European Union's ban on pesticides that harm bees. These aspects have an impact on sugar prices, which peaked in early March and have since fallen after reaching a record high. The ban on pesticides in Europe may cause a further decline in sugar production, while India's decreased production may result in higher prices and more competition from Brazil. On March 20th, 2023, May NY's global sugar price closed down at USD 451.51/MT (20.48 cents/lbs), a 2% WoW decrease. Prior to that, the price had traded as high as USD 462.97/MT (21 cents/lbs) on March 10th, 2023, setting a new record high.
Eurasian Economic Union
In 2023, the EAEU Countries May Expand the Sowing of Sugar Beets (Mar 25)
According to the Eurasian Sugar Association, in 2023 the EAEU countries can produce 8.1M MT of sugar, which is 4% more than in 2022 (7.8M MT). They noted that the growth in sugar production can be ensured primarily by expanding sugar beet crops to 1.43M ha against 1.36M ha in 2022. At the same time, imports of white sugar this year will decrease to 300K MT from 440K MT a year earlier, and raw sugar from 1.56M MT to 1.45M MT. Yevgeny Ivanov, a leading expert at the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), told Agroinvestor that the farmers had no difficulties with the purchase of sugar beet seeds; they managed to purchase and pay for everything. According to him, almost all EAEU farms plan to expand the area under sugar beets
Brazil
StoneX Raises Sugarcane Crushing Forecast for South-Central Brazil (Mar 20)
Sugarcane crushing in south-central Brazil is expected to grow 6.2% compared to the previous season, to 592.1M MT, with the total approaching a productive record, estimated on Mar 20 consulting firm StoneX, which raised its projection compared to January's number (588.2M MT). According to the consultancy report, weather conditions are better for sugarcane plantations in Brazil's main producing region, after the gradual reduction in the intensity of La Niña. "Climate conditions began to improve for Brazilian sugarcane fields, and the last quarter of 2021 again registered a considerable increase in rainfall in the region, a scenario that lasted throughout 2022. Therefore, the sugar-energy market maintains optimism shown in the harvest current cycle for the next season, which will start in the second quarter of 2023", he said. The consultancy said it had raised its productivity estimates from the figure projected in the January report.
Sugar Exports From Brazil Total 1.15M MT Until the 3rd Week of March (Mar 20)
Brazil exported 1.15M MT of sugar and molasses so far in March (13 working days), with accumulated revenue of USD 97.05M (R$ 501.12M), according to the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), of the Ministry of Economy. In W11 alone, more than 360K MT were shipped. In the whole of last month, Brazil exported 1.147M MT of products related to the sugar-energy sector. In the entire month of March 2022 (22 business days), exports of products totaled 1.440M MT and total revenue of USD 560.74M. In the analysis of tons per daily average, sugar and molasses exports totaled 88.49K MT/day in the period, more than 35% higher than in the same period of 2022 (65.47K MT/day). Shipment prices are almost 12% higher at USD 435.60/MT.
The Center-South of Brazil Plans to Resume Their Milling Operations (Mar 20)
A survey by DATAGRO, released Mar 20, shows that, as expected, most of the mills in the Center-South of Brazil plan to resume grinding operations as soon as possible. This anticipation of crushing operations in the Center-South is due to the large volume of sugarcane expected for the 2023/24 harvest. “In addition to the improvement in weather conditions, investments in treatments, and renewal of the cane field, another factor that may also explain the strategy of bringing forward the start of operations is the risk of El Niño, which can cause heavy rains during the harvest period in the second half of the year, also harming the sugarcane ATR indices", explains the consultancy.
Why Sugar Prices Remained Firm in Brazil Even With Low Liquidity at the Moment? (Mar 21)
White crystal sugar prices have remained firm in Brazil in recent weeks, hovering around USD 25.18/50 kg bag (R$130), even with a scenario of low liquidity in negotiations at this time of off-season in the Center-South of Brazil, according to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea, from Esalq/USP). "The supply of higher quality sugar (Icumsa up to 180) remains low in Brazil, but the demand for prompt delivery is also weak. Buyers have stocked up to get through the off-season, or are receiving the product previously purchased", highlights the center of research on the current market scenario. The Cepea/Esalq indicator for this type of sweetener reached a peak of USD 25.82/bag (R$ 133.34) on March 10th. This is also the highest level since February 28 at USD 25.85/bag (R$ 133.49). The question that remains is: why have sugar prices remained firm in Brazil even with a scenario of low liquidity in negotiations?
Weekly Line-up of Sugar From Brazil Rises to 1.33M MT in 36 Vessels (Mar 23)
Brazil's sugar line-up, and schedule of shipments through ports, registered 1.33M MT in the week up to March 22, over 1.30M MT in the previous week, with 1.32M MT of VHP, according to the Williams maritime agency. Total ships for the period were 36, up from 34 the previous week. Most of the schedule was related to the Port of Santos, with 878.27K MT, followed by Paranaguá with 373.56K MT, according to data released by the company.
The processing of sugarcane in the Center-South of Brazil in the 2023/24 season (which will start in April) should be around 597M MT, estimated by the British trading company Czarnikow. In a report, analyst Ana Zancaner stated that rainfall in the region was above the historical average in this first quarter of the year, something that had only occurred in 2016. "This is positive for the development of sugarcane, which means that we expect high agricultural productivity and high availability of sugarcane", he pointed out. The trading company expects agricultural yields to increase by 7% this season, reaching almost 79MT of sugarcane per hectare (TCH). If fulfilled, this would be the highest TCH since the 2020/21 harvest, when the Center-South of the country grounded 605M MT of sugarcane. With the greater availability of raw materials, Czarnikow predicts that the region will produce 37.6M MT of sugar in the 2023/24 cycle, the second-highest production ever recorded in history.
Crushing in Brazil’s Center-South Region Reached 543.89M MT YTD (Mar 24)
Sugarcane crushing in the first half of March in the Center-South region totaled 608.29K MT. In the same period, in the previous year, only 142.35K MT of sugarcane was processed, representing an increase of 327.32%. In the accumulated of the 2022/23 harvest, crushing reached 543.89M MT, against 522.92M MT registered in the same period in the 2021/22 cycle, an increase of 4.01%. In the first half of March, 10 units started the 2023/24 harvest. At the end of the fortnight, 24 units remain in operation in the Center-South, 13 of which process sugarcane and 11 companies manufacture ethanol from corn. In the same period, in the 2021/22 harvest, there were 10 industrial parks in operation.
Unica Plans a Jump in Sugarcane Crushing in the Second Half of March (Mar 24)
Sugarcane crushing in south-central Brazil will jump to around 5M MT in the second half of March, before the start of the new season in April, projected on Mar 24 by the Sugarcane Industry Union (Unica). At the same time last year, the sector had processed only 1.18M MT. The strong increase happens with more plants in operation in the second half of March, in preparation for the new 2023/24 harvest, which officially begins on April 1, indicated Unica, which represents the industries of the center-south. Unica said it expects that 36 units will restart the activities of the agricultural operation in the second half of March. These plants should join the 24 factories that operated in the first part of the month. The total number is expected to be more than double what was seen in the second part of March last year.
India
India May Export More Sugar in Crop Year 2022/23 (Mar 20)
On the sidelines of the Dubai Road Conference, Kolkata-based Balrampur Chini Mills Avantika Saraogi said India's sugar production is currently estimated at 33.5M - 34.5M MT. So far, India has only exported 6.1M MT of sugar in the 2022/23 crop year, a sharp drop from the previous year's record 11M MT of sugar exports. Government and industry officials have downgraded the outlook for exports due to expected reductions in sugar production, particularly in the main producing state of Maharashtra. Avantika Saraogi said that if the current crop output exceeds 34M MT and the government sees enough reserves in April, it may approve an additional 1M MT of sugar exports. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) slashed its forecast at the end of January to 34M MT for the 2022/23 crop year ending next September, while at the beginning of the week of March 2023, the Indian Trade Association, The All India Sugar Trade (AISTA) said the country is capable of producing only 33.5M MT.
India’s Sugar Output Down 7% In the Crop Year 2022/23 (Mar 21)
Lower sugar production from India, the world's largest producer of sweeteners, will hardly generate any surplus for additional exports in the current season. The government allows mills to export only 6.1M MT of sugar in the 2022/23 crop year, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is expected to allow a second batch of exports. Earlier this year, an industry official said there was a proposal to allocate an additional export quota of about 400K MT to sugar mills that are producing ethanol directly from sugarcane juice. But the proposal was not approved because the government wanted to see actual production numbers before making a decision. In the previous crop year 2021/22, India exported a record 11.2M MT of sugar. Therefore, the country's absence from the market may cause global sugar prices to rise and rivals Brazil and Thailand to boost exports. India mainly exports sugar to Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Sudan, Somalia, and UAE. At the end of January 2023, ISMA cut its 2022/23 production estimate by 7% to 34M MT, down from its previous forecast of 36.5M MT. Last season, Indian mills produced a record 35.8M MT of sugar. Unfavorable weather conditions have affected the sugarcane crop in the western state of Maharashtra, the country's largest producing state, reducing the yield of the current crop to 12.1M MT compared to 13.7M MT.
China
China’s Sugar Production Forecast at 6-Year Low Due to Drought (Mar 20)
Green Pool forecasts that sugar production in Southwest China in the 2022/23 season will drop 12% from the previous season to 5.4M MT, the lowest since 2016/17 (3M MT). This shows that the supply of sugarcane is gradually depleting. Local farmers say that some of the sugarcane harvested at the end of the season has suffered considerable damage due to drought. In general, the country's sugar output will only reach 9.17 MT, down from the previous estimate of 9.52M MT. In the first week of March 2023, China's Ministry of Agriculture also reduced the country's sugarcane output forecast to 9.3M MT, a loss of 7.2%. The cuts, in anticipation of lower output at major producers Thailand and India, pushed global sugar prices to multi-year highs. China is the world's second-largest sugar consumer after India and depends on imports to meet its demand of about 15M MT/year. However, high global sugar prices have dampened import demand. In contrast, US sugar production rebounded.
Turkey
Sugar Support Was Given to Beekeepers in Antalya’s Elmalı District (Mar 25)
Discounted sugar support was given to beekeepers in Antalya's Elmalı district to use in feeding the bees in spring. District Agriculture and Forestry Director Dilek Boğatimur informed that from time to time, various supports are provided to the producers by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. Stating that sugar support was given to beekeepers during this period, Boğatimur said, "We distributed sugar supported by the state to feed the bees. We provided 32MT of sugar support to the producers in our district. Beekeepers will use these sugars as spring and autumn nutrition." said. Hamza Demirhan, the headman of the localities dealing with beekeeping, also thanked the authorities for their support.
Spain
Sugar Prices at the Top in Spain and in International Markets (Mar 20)
Sugars are reaching their highest levels in international markets. In Spain, it is the product with the highest inflation. Among the causes are the costs of the war in Ukraine and a reduction in supply that comes from behind. The Spanish Consumer Price Index (CPI), the indicators of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), and the prices of reference markets such as London reflect an upward trend in sugar prices that contrasts with a certain moderation in other raw materials. Spain is a country with a deficit in sugar production and in the last 12 months, its price has increased by 52.6% for its citizens, which represents the highest price increase of all goods (agri-food and others) of the latest data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February. Compared to January, it has rebounded by 1.1% and so far this year by 2.2%, according to the CPI.
Russia
Kuban Started Sowing Sugar Beet 2023 (Mar 22)
Beet growers continue to be compensated for the purchase of Russian-selected sugar beet seeds. This was announced by the Governor of the Krasnodar Territory Veniamin Kondratyev on Mar 21. Kuban region began to sow sugar beets and nearly 200K ha have been allocated for this crop. Every year, farmers increase the area sown with the seeds of Russian selection. “For our part, we continue to compensate agricultural producers for the purchase of Russian seeds. This year we will allocate USD 0.20M (15M rubles) from the regional budget. Moreover, we will continue to plant sugar beet seedlings so that by 2024 at least half of the sown area will be occupied by our Kuban varieties,” said Veniamin Kondratiev. The largest areas of this culture are in Pavlovsky, Bryukhovetsky, Vyselkovsky, Starominsky, Beloglinsky, Leningradsky, Gulkevichsky, and Ust-Labinsky districts.
Indonesia
Indonesian Government to Import 215K MT of Sugar (Mar 25)
The government will import 215K MT of sugar to maintain the national supply and anticipate increased demand during the fasting month of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr. Head of the National Food Agency (NFA) Arief Prasetyo noted in a statement on Mar 25 that the import will be carried out by state-owned food enterprises: ID Food and plantation holding company PTPN. Adi said domestic sugar production during the January-December 2023 period is expected to reach 2.6M MT, while demand during the same period is expected to reach 3.4M MT. "Hence, we have to cover the lack of supply with imports. We are expediting this move of (sugar) provision from the foreign market to prevent scarcity because this year's fasting month and Eid will fall ahead of the sugar milling season," he elaborated.
United Kingdom
Sugar futures ended on Mar 24 with a drop in the New York and London stock exchanges, despite accumulating highs since the beginning of the week. The market on the day was pressured by oil, in addition to information on the 2023/24 crop in the Center-South. The most traded month of raw sugar on the New York Stock Exchange fell 0.34%, quoted at USD 459.00/MT (20.82 cents/lb), with a high of USD 462.75/MT (20.99 cents/lb) and a low of 455.25/MT (20.65 cents/lb). In London, the first contract was down 0.03% on the day, at USD 597.60/MT. In the week, the main salary of the sweetener in the North American terminal accumulated a high of 1.66%. The sugar market extended the losses of the eve on Mar 24 with oscillations in oil still on the radar. Crude oil in the exchanges fell by around 4%, which directly impacts the mills' decision on sugar or ethanol production.
Ukraine
Spring Crops Planting for 2023 Gains Momentum in 18 Regions of Ukraine (Mar 24)
Spring crops planting campaign has started in 18 regions of Ukraine. By March 23, growers planted 293K ha with grain and leguminous crops, the Agrarian Ministry updates. Sugar beet sowing is progressing in Vinnytsya, Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytsky, and Cherkasy regions.
Egypt
Sugar Prices at 6-Year High Due to Egypt (Mar 22)
With the decision taken in Egypt, the export of all kinds of sugar, except the surplus, was restricted for three months. Although Egypt is a relatively small exporter of the sugar trade, the restriction decision is expected to affect approximately 250K MT of the sugar trade. After the decision was taken, white sugar futures rose as much as 2.2% in London, while raw sugar also gained in value. Thus, sugar futures soared to their highest level in more than six years. Covrig Analytics Principal Analyst Claudiu Covrig said that Egypt's decision coincided with Ramadan, a period of increased sugar consumption, and they expect the restrictions to help lower local prices. Ali El-Moselhy, Egypt's Minister of Internal Trade and Procurement, stated that Egypt's current sugar stocks are at a level that will last three months, adding that local beet sugar production will help replenish stocks.
Egypt’s Al-Tamween Receives 5.1M MT of Cane From Farmers (Mar 23)
The Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade, represented by the Sugar and Integrated Industries Company, received about 5.182M MT of cane from farmers from the beginning of the crop supply season last December, until Mar 22. It is noteworthy that the Ministry of Supply aims, during the 2023 supply season, to receive about 8M MT of cane so as to produce 850K MT of sugar. Major General Essam El-Din El-Budaiwi, head of the Sugar and Integrated Industries Company, said that the quantities received amounted to USD 0.18B (5.7B) and USD 16.80K (519K pounds), which were paid to farmers who supplied the crop to factories in the governorates of Upper Egypt. Al-Budaiwi added, in statements to Al-Mal, that about 551K MT of white sugar were produced from the quantities of cane delivered from farmers, and it is being refined, packaged and supplied to the Holding Company for Food Industries. Al-Budaiwi added that he aims to supply quantities of packaged sugar from the current cane crop to the stores of the “Al-Masria” and “Al-Aamah” companies for wholesale trade, with the aim of distributing them to the supply outlets and disbursing them within the decisions of the current month of March and next April.
Vietnam
Exporting the First Batch of Fresh Sugarcane to the US Market (Mar 20)
On March 19, the first batch of fresh white sugarcane from Hoa Binh province "departed" to the US market after nearly half a year of negotiation on contract terms as well as technical requirements with the US government; import partners. The organization of export of white sugar cane is organized by the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of Hoa Binh province, the People's Committee of Lac Son district, Tien Ngan Trade Investment Co., Ltd., Trade Development and New Production Technology Co., Ltd., and Vina Agri Import Hoa Company. Implementation period. The first shipment of fresh white sugarcane containers exported to the US market had a volume of 17.3M MT.
WTO Policy for Importing Sugar From ASEAN Countries Including Vietnam (Mar 24)
Sugar is one of four products that Vietnam is allowed to apply tariff quotas when joining the WTO. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, implementing the commitment to eliminate tariff quotas under the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement, the Minister of Industry and Trade issued Circular 23/2019/TT-BCT dated November 13, 2019, effective from January 1, 2020. Accordingly, Clause 1, Article 1 stipulates that no import tariff quota will be applied to sugar (HS code 1701) originating from ASEAN countries in accordance with current law. Clause 2, Article 1 stipulates that the quantity of sugar imported from ASEAN countries (under the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement) is not included in the annual tariff quota announced by the Ministry of Industry and Trade under the commitments of the World Trade Organization (WTO) applies to WTO countries. The Ministry of Industry and Trade said that the import of sugar from ASEAN countries according to Circular 23/2019/TT-BCT requires a Certificate of Origin Form D.
Kenya
Kenya Imports Cheap Sugar From India, and Madagascar Cool Prices (Mar 22)
Cheap sugar imports from India and Madagascar have helped to ease the runaway price of the commodity in Kenya as traders avoided sourcing the sweetener from expensive markets. Data from the Sugar Directorate shows Kenya brought in 8.74K MT of table sugar in February with India and Madagascar accounting for at least 80% of the total imports. The directorate says a tonne of sugar from Madagascar landed in Kenya at USD 497.24 (Sh65,536) with that from India getting to Mombasa at USD 551.38 (Sh72,672) down from USD 569.04 (Sh75K )in January. Traders avoided expensive source markets such as Egypt and Uganda, where a month earlier they had procured a tonne of the commodity at USD 640.03 (Sh84,356) and USD 770.58 (Sh101,562) respectively. Business people had in the previous months been acquiring significant stocks of the commodity from Uganda owing to its proximity to Kenya. The directorate says the consumer price of sugar has dropped from USD 1.18/kg (Sh155) in January on average, to USD 1.12 (Sh147) currently.
