W13 Wheat Update: EU Soft Wheat Exports Dip in 2023/24 Season, EC Predicts Decline in Wheat Production for 2024/25 Season

EU Soft Wheat Exports Slightly Down in the 2023/24 Season

According to the European Commission (EC), soft wheat exports from European Union (EU) countries for the 2023/24 season reached 22.8 million metric tons (mmt) as of March 23. This marks a 2% year-on-year (YoY) decrease from last season's 23.2 mmt. France, Romania, Poland, Germany, and Lithuania are the primary suppliers of grain to foreign markets, with France leading at 6.3 mmt, followed by Romania with 5.2 mmt, Poland with 2.9 mmt, Germany with 2.2 mmt, and Lithuania with 2.2 mmt.

EC Forecasts Decline in EU Soft Wheat Production for 2024/25 Season

The EC projects a decline in the EU's main wheat crop to a four-year low in the 2024/25 season due to a reduced planted area. Usable production of common wheat, or soft wheat, is forecasted to reach 120.8 mmt, down nearly 4% from the 2023/24 season, representing the lowest level since 2020/21. Heavy rain has disrupted wheat planting across Europe, affecting top EU producers like France and Germany. The EC estimates the soft wheat area in the EU at 20.95 million hectares (ha), down from 21.75 million ha in 2023/24, with an average yield projected to remain unchanged at 6 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha). EU soft wheat exports in 2024/25 are anticipated to reach 31 mmt, while imports are forecasted to decrease to 4.4 mmt due to increased Ukrainian grain inflow. End-of-season soft wheat stocks are expected to decline to 12.1 mmt in 2024/25 from 19.9 mmt in the current season.

Algeria's Wheat Imports Forecasted at 8.6 MMT for 2023/24 Season

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Algeria's wheat import was forecasted at 8.6 mmt in the 2023/24 fiscal year due to a deficit in domestic production and stable consumer demand. In the preceding 2022/23 fiscal year, wheat imports to Algeria stood at 8.141 mmt, with expectations of a slight decrease to 8 mmt in the upcoming season, attributed to an increase in domestic wheat production from 2.7 to 3 mmt. Notably, Russia has emerged as a key supplier of wheat to Algeria in the current season, displacing the EU from its traditional leading positions. This shift follows Algeria's decision to increase the permitted content of bug-damaged grain, opening its market to wheat from the Black Sea region. Consequently, the Russian Federation has intensified wheat supplies to Algeria, progressively displacing traditional suppliers such as France.

Saudi Arabia to Increase Wheat Production by 25% YoY in 2024/25

Saudi Arabia intends to boost its wheat production by 25% YoY to 1.5 mmt in the 2024/25 season through a voluntary program targeting small farmers, with adjustments possible based on environmental and global supply dynamics. This initiative aims to meet the escalating domestic demand, forecasted to rise 5% YoY to 4.75 mmt, propelled by the growth in tourism and extensive construction projects. Despite these developments, wheat prices are expected to remain steady, akin to the previous year's rate of USD 467/mt.

Russia Sets Record Wheat Exports in Mar-24 Amid Rapid Spring Sowing Progress

Russia exported 1.27 mmt of grain, primarily wheat, at 1.14 mmt during W12. Mar-24 wheat exports are forecasted to reach 5 mmt, marking a record high for March and surpassing the 4.8 mmt in Mar-23. The Ministry of Agriculture in Moscow noted that spring sowing is progressing rapidly, covering 1 million ha for spring crops, twice the pace compared to last year. Despite recent dry weather affecting conditions, overall prospects for the Russian wheat harvest remain positive, estimated to reach 94 mmt, an increase of 0.4 mmt.