1. Weekly News

Global

Sunflower Oil Market Faces Pressure from Cheaper Alternatives and Shifting Global Demand

Sunflower oil markets are experiencing mixed dynamics amid broader vegetable oil volatility. Global demand has softened slightly as buyers increasingly opt for more affordable oils like palm and soybean. Despite this, Ukraine's sunflower oil exports rose in early April, supported by post-Ramadan demand and increased local sales. However, demand from key destinations like Greece and Bulgaria has weakened due to currency shifts, while India’s sunflower oil imports fell to a six-month low in March. Analysts expect a rebound in Indian imports in April, driven by low stock levels and the start of the holiday season, offering short-term support for sunflower oil trade.

Trade War Impact on Sunflower Oil Prices and Market Dynamics

The ongoing trade conflict between the United States (US) and China is causing oil prices to drop, which is expected to put pressure on sunflower oil prices in Ukraine. While sunflower seed prices remain stable, processors are reducing premiums for large orders due to the downward trend in global oil prices. Export demand for Ukrainian sunflower oil to Black Sea ports remains stable, while demand to the European Union (EU) has slightly increased due to the strengthening of the euro. However, EU buyers are becoming cautious, anticipating future price declines. Sunflower meal exports have increased slightly, following the trends in corn prices. Additionally, the decrease in palm oil prices and the upcoming increase in palm oil production may affect the demand for sunflower oil. Experts note that sunflower seed stocks in key Black Sea-producing countries are comparable to last year's levels, but the price gap between sunflower oil and other vegetable oils has widened, leading to reduced demand. Ukrainian farmers are advised to accelerate sales of sunflower seeds at current high prices before increased planting areas in Ukraine and Russia cause forward prices to fall.

Egypt

Egypt's Vegetable Oil Imports Expected to Rise Amid Economic Adjustments and Growing Demand

Egypt’s consumption of vegetable oils—soybean, sunflower, and palm—is projected to reach 2.49 million metric tons (mmt) in the 2025/26 season, marking a 2.9% increase from the previous year, fueled by population growth, rising demand, and lower inflation. In particular, sunflower oil is expected to see notable growth in both consumption and trade due to the country’s limited domestic production and increasing consumer preference. The shift to a flexible exchange rate and improved access to foreign currency are supporting the steady flow of raw material imports needed by the oil processing sector, reinforcing Egypt’s reliance on sunflower and other imported vegetable oils.

Ukraine

Ukraine Expands Sunflower Oil and Meal Exports

From April 1 to 9, 2025, Ukraine's sunflower oil exports increased by 10% month-on-month (MoM), reaching 151,000 tons, with additional spot shipments actively sold on the market. Sunflower meal exports also saw a 1% rise, totaling 99,000 tons, with over 70,000 tons delivered to China, highlighting growing demand from the region. The surge in sunflower seed sales in late Mar-25 and early Apr-25 revitalized processing activities, which continues to support the growth of sunflower oil and meal exports in Apr-25 and May-25.

Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Processors Pivot to Soybeans as Sunseed Margins Collapse

Ukrainian sunflower oil processors are facing a sharp decline in processing margins due to elevated raw sunflower seed prices, driven by producer sales restraint. With unprofitable conditions in the sunseed segment, many plants are switching to soybean processing despite similarly low margins. The high cost of sunflower seeds has made it difficult for processors to maintain operations, pushing them toward alternative oilseeds until rapeseed becomes available. Meanwhile, global sunflower oil trade remains strong due to limited domestic production in key markets like Egypt, but Ukrainian processors struggle to compete due to input costs. The situation underscores the volatility in the sunflower sector and highlights the broader impact of pricing pressures across the vegetable oil market.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (W16 2024 to W16 2025) 

Russia

In W16, sunflower oil prices in Russia remained stable at USD 1.13 per kilogram (kg) for the third consecutive week, with this price consistency in US dollars largely attributed to recent shifts in the EUR/USD exchange rate that masked underlying price volatility. Despite this short-term steadiness, prices increased slightly by 1.80% MoM and surged by 32.94% year-on-year (YoY), reflecting broader market tightening caused by unfavorable weather conditions in 2024 that still affect supply. The YoY rise is driven by stable but firm reserve levels, price alignment with Ukraine amid elevated input costs, and increasing price pressure from competitively priced Argentine oil. Additionally, the market is cautiously preparing for potential demand increase at the end of April, which could further influence regional trade flows and pricing.

Ukraine

In W16, sunflower oil prices in Ukraine held steady at USD 1.14/kg week-on-week (WoW), despite recent increases in euro-denominated prices.  This stability in USD terms is largely due to a weaker USD to EUR exchange rate, which offset local price movements. MoM prices dipped slightly by 0.87%, reflecting a modest market correction amid rising export volumes and processor adjustments. The sharp 34.12% YoY increase underscores persistent tight domestic supply, bolstered by strong early-April sunflower oil exports, which rose 10%. However, the recent price softening comes as high raw sunflower seed costs erode processing margins, prompting a shift toward soybean crushing. These dynamics, alongside broader global macroeconomic pressures and falling crude oil benchmarks, have tempered bullish sentiment in the short term despite firm long-term fundamentals.

Argentina

In W16, Argentina’s sunflower oil prices rose slightly to USD 1.11/kg, up 0.91% WoW and 2.78% MoM, reflecting consistent upward momentum driven by strong export demand and expanding processing activity. Highlighting Argentina’s growing role in global sunflower oil trade, YoY prices increased significantly by 27.59%. Despite the price rises, Argentine sunflower oil remains competitively priced compared to other origins, helping sustain stable demand in key international markets. Favorable local supply conditions and logistical advantages, including freight compensation mechanisms, continue to support export competitiveness and underpin current pricing strength.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Accelerate Sunflower Seed Sales in Ukraine and Russia

Given high YoY price growth and tight domestic supply, Ukrainian and Russian producers should fast-track seed sales before increased planting areas and falling global vegetable oil benchmarks pressure forward prices. This preemptive move will help secure margins while demand remains steady.

Strengthen Competitive Positioning Against Cheaper Oils

With palm and soybean oils putting downward pressure on sunflower oil demand globally, exporters—especially in Ukraine—should offer flexible pricing strategies, optimize freight logistics, and promote sunflower oil’s nutritional profile to differentiate in competitive markets such as India, Egypt, and the EU.

Capitalize on Argentina’s Momentum

Argentine exporters should leverage their competitive pricing and rising role in global trade to expand into new markets or increase share in existing ones. Government incentives and freight subsidies should be maximized to enhance FOB attractiveness versus Black Sea competitors.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Portal, Elevatorist, Grain Trade, UKR Agro Consult