W16 Maize (Corn) Update: Global Corn Production Forecast Revised Downward for 2024/25, Vietnam Braces for Surge in Corn Imports

IGC Lowers Global Corn Production Forecast for 2024/25 Season

The International Grains Council (IGC) revised its forecast for global corn production in Apr-24, reducing it by 7 million metric tons (mmt) to 1.226 billion metric tons (mt) for the 2024/25 season. This adjustment primarily reflects a lower forecast for the United States (US) harvest. Despite the reduction, the global corn production forecast remains slightly above the previous year's 1.223 billion mt. The revised estimate for the US corn harvest in 2024/25 is now 374 mmt, down from Mar-24's forecast of 382 mmt. In contrast, China's corn production is projected to reach 293 mmt, slightly up from the previous projection of 291 mmt.

Corn Planting in North America Expected to Decline by 5% YoY in 2024

According to surveys, North American producers intend to plant approximately 90 million acres of corn in 2024, reflecting a 5% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. Corn planting intentions have either decreased or remained unchanged in 38 of 48 states. Significant reductions in acreage are expected in states like Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, South Dakota, and Texas, with decreases of 300 thousand acres or more compared to 2023. Conversely, the areas planted with corn in Arizona and Oregon are projected to reach record highs if current plans materialize.

USDA Forecasts Decline in Ukraine's Corn Production and Exports for 2024/25 Season

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Ukraine will produce 26.6 mmt of corn in the 2024/25 season, marking a 6% decrease from the previous estimate of 28.3 mmt for 2023/24. Despite this decline, the projected volume is slightly higher than that of 2022/23, which was 26.2 mmt. The USDA attributes the decrease in grain production to the unprofitability of agriculture in Ukraine following Russia's invasion, leading to reduced cultivation area and production for the next marketing year. Meanwhile, corn exports are expected to decline 9.35% from 24.6 mmt in 2023/24 to 22.3 mmt in 2024/25, below the estimated volume of 27.12 mmt for 2022/23. Despite the reduction, improved logistics in the Black Sea region are expected to favor exports and result in low-end stocks. The USDA also notes that the European Union (EU) has become the primary market for Ukrainian grains in 2023/24 due to temporary import tax and quota suspensions, a trend expected to continue into 2024/25.

Ukraine Initiates Corn Sowing for the Season, Other Spring Crops Follow Suit

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, Ukraine has commenced corn sowing, with 120 thousand hectares (ha) planted as of April 11, accounting for 3% of the intended 3.912 million ha. Additionally, the sowing of other spring cereals and legumes is underway, encompassing a total area of 1.261 million ha, representing 22.5% of the planned 5.601 million ha.

Vietnam's Corn Consumption Outlook and Import Trends for 2024/25 Season

Vietnam's total corn consumption in the 2024/25 season is forecasted to reach 14.1 mmt, with 12.7 mmt designated for feed and residual use, in line with total feed demand projections. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) adjusted its 2023/24 forecast for corn consumption to 13 mmt due to increased feed wheat import. Feed demand for 2024 is anticipated to rise to 26.5 mmt, driven by higher aquafeed demand post a dip in 2023, with total feed demand reaching 27 mmt in 2025. Vietnam heavily relies on imports for about 75% of its feed ingredients, including corn and feed wheat, rendering it a price-sensitive market. Corn production for 2024/25 is estimated at 3.65 mmt, prompting import increase due to domestic production's lack of competitiveness. Imports are expected to reach 11 mmt for 2024/25, up from 10 mmt in the previous year, with Brazil emerging as the largest corn supplier to Vietnam in 2023, followed by Argentina and India.