1. Weekly News

Argentina

Argentina's 2024/25 Sunflower Crop Forecast Raised to Record High

Argentina’s 2024/25 sunflower seed production is now forecasted at a record 4.7 million tons, up 200,000 tons from the previous estimate, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE), following higher-than-expected plantings. Since Argentina is a major exporter of sunflower oil, this increase supports strong export prospects. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) previously estimating sunflower production at 4.2 million tons and oil exports at 1.15 million tons.

Argentina’s Sunflower Oil Exports Significantly Increased in Mar-25

Argentina’s sunflower oil exports rose to 119,000 tons in Mar-25, a 17% increase year-on-year (YoY), driven by higher processing volumes and the reopening of the Vicentin plant. India was the largest buyer, importing 47,000 tons, nearly double last year’s figure. The expanded processing capacity and strong demand have strengthened Argentina’s position in the global sunflower oil market.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Sees Strong Growth in Sunflower Oil Production

Kazakhstan's oilseed processing plants have shown impressive growth, producing 394,000 tons of vegetable oil between Sep-24 and Mar-25, a 16% increase YoY. Sunflower oil accounted for 84% of the total production. More than 90% of the sunflower oil produced is exported. The country has also ramped up oil refining, with a 20% increase in edible oil production, totaling 97,300 tons. Moreover, Kazakhstan has entered into an agreement with South Korea, selling packaged sunflower oil at a fixed price of USD 1.46 per liter (KZT 750/L) until Nov-25. Additionally, Kazakhstan aims to compete with Russia in the Chinese market, where it had a 37% share of exports last year.

Kazakhstan Expands Sunflower Oil Exports to Afghanistan with New Agreements

During a trade mission to Kabul from April 21 to 23, 2025, Kazakh oilseed processing companies signed six memorandums of understanding (MOUs) with Afghan firms for the supply of vegetable oils, totaling USD 12 million. According to the Kazakhstan Oilseed Processors Association, sunflower oil export revenues to Afghanistan in the first half of the 2024/25 marketing year rose by 60% compared to the same period last year, exceeding USD 17 million. With new refining projects underway, Kazakhstan plans to double its oil exports to Afghanistan in the future.

Russia

Russian Sunflower Processing Industry Faces Major Crisis in 2025

Russia’s oilseed processing sector is entering its toughest season in a decade, as high sunflower seed costs, weak global demand, and heavy export duties create a liquidity crisis. Following a Jan-25 export surge that drained reserves and inflated prices, many processors are operating at minimal or negative margins, with some halting production. Experts warn that margins will stay under pressure until the next harvest, and unless raw material costs fall, recovery in processing activity is unlikely despite hopes for expanded acreage and a strong autumn crop.

Russia Adjusts Sunflower Oil and Meal Export Duties Starting May-25

From May 1, 2025, Russia will lower the export duty on sunflower oil to USD 54 per ton (RUB 4,500/ton) from USD 54.82/ton (RUB 4,568.7/ton) in April, based on an indicative price of USD 1,090.50/ton. Meanwhile, the export duty for sunflower meal will increase slightly to USD 11.32/ton (RUB 943.60/ton). The Russian government has extended customs duties on sunflower oil and meal until August 31, 2026. Sunflower seed exports remain subject to a 50% duty, with a minimum of USD 384/ton (RUB 32,000/ton), valid until August 31, 2025. Since 2022, duties on sunflower oil and meal have been calculated in rubles instead of dollars, aiming to stabilize the domestic market.

Spain

Local Production Shortage Drives Spain to Import Sunflower and Sunflower Oil

Spain produces approximately 1 million tons of sunflower annually but requires double that amount to meet local demand, leading to the need to import sunflower and sunflower oil from various countries, including Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, France, and Argentina. During the XV edition of the 'Andalusian Commodity Exchange' in Seville, industry experts expressed concern about the uncertainty caused by tariffs imposed by the United States (US), which are disrupting global oil and cereal trade. The importance of monitoring trade policies and factors like ongoing trade wars and weather conditions impacting Mediterranean crop production was also emphasized.

Ukraine

Ukraine Increases Sunflower Oil Exports to India and Iraq Amid Strong Demand

Despite a decline in overall sunflower seed production, Ukraine has seen strong export growth in sunflower oil, driven by increased demand from India and Iraq. From Sep-24 to mid-Apr-25, Ukraine shipped 519,000 tons of sunflower oil to India, more than double the amount from the previous season. India remains a key buyer, though Russia's market share has surged, accounting for 63% of India's imports, compared to Ukraine's 23%. Exports to Iraq have also surged, increasing ninefold to 176,000 tons YoY, with a record 58,000 tons delivered in mid-April.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (W17 2024 to W17 2025) 

Russia

Russia's sunflower oil prices have remained stable week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM), holding steady at USD 1.13 per kilogram (kg) in W17. The 36.14% YoY increase in prices is largely attributed to unfavorable weather conditions impacting sunflower seed supply and rising input costs. Despite stable reserve levels, competitive pricing from Argentina and price alignment with Ukraine have contributed to upward pressure. The market is also preparing for a potential demand increase at the end of April based on previous demand trends, which could further influence prices. The stability in the short term is due to currency fluctuations, particularly in the EUR/USD exchange rate, which have masked local market volatility. However, concerns about future processing margins persist due to high sunflower seed costs and weak global demand.

Ukraine

Ukraine's sunflower oil prices saw a slight increase of 0.88% WoW in W17, despite no change MoM. The YoY price increase of 36.90% is largely due to tight domestic supply, high export volumes, and strong demand from key markets such as India and Iraq. Local shortages, high raw material costs, and tight processing margins have supported higher prices. However, the monthly fluctuations show a modest correction due to rising raw sunflower seed costs, which have eroded processing margins. Additionally, falling crude oil prices and a weakening USD have further contributed to the price dip. The shift of some processing plants toward soybean crushing has also influenced short-term market sentiment.

Argentina

In W17, sunflower oil prices in Argentina remained stable WoW, holding at USD 1.11/kg. However, there was a slight MoM increase of 0.91%, and a significant YoY rise of 29.07%. The price increase is primarily driven by strong export demand, expanding processing capacity, and a favorable local supply of sunflower seeds, aided by improved rainfall and higher-than-expected yields. The reopening of processing plants, such as Vicentin, has further bolstered processing volumes and export prospects. Despite these positive factors, downward pressure on prices is expected due to the significantly larger sunflower harvest anticipated for the 2024/25 season, which could increase supply and potentially lower prices in the near future.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Prepare for Imminent Supply Surge

Buyers should negotiate forward contracts before the 2024/25 record crop fully enters the market, locking in current prices before expected downward pressure intensifies. Exporters should maximize shipments during Q2-Q3 2025 to capitalize on strong demand, particularly from India and Europe, before the increased supply potentially depresses prices.

Target Spanish Import Demand

Exporters from Argentina, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan should actively target Spanish buyers facing production deficits. Strategic partnerships with Spanish distributors and offering flexible contract terms that can adapt to tariff fluctuations (especially given US-European Union trade tensions) will strengthen positioning. Highlighting supply security and reliable logistics will be key selling points.

Leverage New Export Opportunities

Traders should prioritize building relationships with South Korean and Chinese buyers, taking advantage of Kazakhstan’s expanding refining capacity and government-backed pricing agreements. Kazakhstan-origin sunflower oil could be marketed as a competitive alternative to Russian and Ukrainian oil, emphasizing stable pricing and growing volumes. Diversification into Afghanistan should also be strengthened, especially through bundled long-term agreements.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Diario, Agro Portal UA, EFE Agro, Finance UA, Food Mate, Grain Trade UA, MezoHir, Interfax, UKR Agro Consult, Зерно Он-Лайн