In W18 in the sugar landscape, on Monday, May 1, the July/23 sugar futures prices on the New York Stock Exchange ended the session with a decline of more than 3%, quoted at 25.54 cents/lb, and continued falling by 1.6% to 25.14 cents/lb on May 2, as demand in China weakened due to high price pressure after reaching 11-year highs in W17. However, on May 3, raw sugar closed up 0.1%, at 25.17 cents/lb, and up 3%, at 26.32 cents/lb, on May 5. This is mainly due to tight offers following lower-than-expected harvests in China, India, and Thailand, as well as a harvest in Brazil that has been hampered by rains. The global sugar market is projected to have a reduced supply surplus of 1.1 MMT in 2022/23 (Oct–Sept) down from a March projection of a 2.5 MMT surplus following disappointment with crops in places like India, Mexico, and the EU.
India, the second-largest producer of sugar in the world, reduced its sugar output forecast to 32.8 MMT for the 2022/23 season, which ends in September 2023, down 8.4% YoY from 35.8MMT in MY 2021/22, largely due to low crushing in Maharashtra, a leading sugar production state in India. The Indian government intends to impose a restriction on the export of sugar to other nations due to a decline in sugar production and the need to reduce the risk of inflation before the state elections in India. Although the final choice has not yet been made, sugar mills were advised to voluntarily discontinue exports.
Prices for sugar in the EU rose by 61% between February and March 2023 compared to the same months in 2022. In March 2023, the largest increase in annual sugar price inflation was recorded in the Czech Republic (98%), Estonia (97%), Poland (82%), Germany (72%), and Latvia (70%). Brazil's central-southern region is expected to process 595.9MMT of sugarcane in the 2023/24 season, up 9.2% from the 2022/23 season and up from 592.1MMT from the March forecast, considering better yields and an increase in planted area by 3.6% to 7.75M hectares. In the whole of April, Brazil exported 1.827MMT of products related to the sugar-energy sector, an increase from exports in 2022, which totaled 1.316MMT with a revenue of USD 509.29M. Lastly, in Kenya, duty-free sugar imports have not been able to lower the high retail prices. Due to a local shortage, the average price of sugar has increased from USD 1.09/kg in January to USD 1.15/kg in W18.
