In W18 in the wheat landscape, global wheat prices rose the sharpest in six months, with wheat futures in Chicago rising by 1.2% to USD 6.475 per bushel, and in Singapore trading at USD 6.41 per bushel. This is due to tensions in the Black Sea escalating after the Kremlin attacked Ukrainian drowns. The FAO estimates 2022/23 global wheat production to reach 785MMT, down by 1MMT compared to the April forecast, ending the series of higher yield estimates. FAO data also indicates that EU wheat production is expected to reach 139.5MMT, due to the rain experienced in April which was good for the crops. The European Commission (EC) projects EU soft wheat exports in the 2022/23 season to reach 31MMT, down from 32MMT estimated a month ago. On the contrary, the EC raised 2022/23 EU soft wheat stocks to reach 19.6MMT, up from 18.1MMT from the March forecast. The new forecast showed a 1MMT cut in foreign sales and a 0.5MMT increase in expected imports, to 8MMT.
SovEcon adjusted downwards 2022/23 Russian wheat exports to 44.4MMT, down 2.2% from the previous forecast of 45.4MMT. The reduction is linked to weaker sales, as Russian traders find it difficult to compete with cereal from other origins due to the unofficial minimum price of USD 275/MT FOB. For the 2023/24 season Russian wheat exports are forecast to reach 43MMT, the second largest volume after the 2022/23 shipments, while the wheat harvest is predicted to clock 86.8MMT, compared to the 2022/23 harvest of 104.2MMT. According to the Russian Grain Union, in April, Russia exported 5.03MMT of wheat, the highest volume for the month in the last six years, with shipments mainly destined for Turkey (1.266K MT), Egypt (666K MT), and Algeria (410K MT). The USDA reports that as of the week ending April 27th, US wheat export inspections reached 358.27K MT, down 5.55K MT from the week ending April 20th and 34.17K MT from the week ending April 28th in 2022. US wheat shipments were mainly destined for Egypt and Kenya. With just over a month remaining in the 2022/23 season, US wheat inspections were 18.249MMT, down compared to 18.766MMT in the 2021/22 season. The USDA also outlines that as of April 30th, US spring wheat sowing reached 12%, against 14% of expectations, 5% the previous week, 18% in 2022, and the 22% average.
FAS estimates Australian wheat production in the 2023/24 season to reach 29MMT, down 25% from the record 39.2MMT estimated in 2022/23 MY, mainly due to prediction of drier weather and a retreat in prices. The 2022/23 Australian wheat harvested area is projected to decline by 2% to 12.8M ha, estimated to be the second largest planting over the last 10 years and 8% above the previous 10-year average. With a smaller expected Australian wheat crop, FAS forecasts a 7MMT decline in exports to 23MMT. Despite the 23% anticipated decline, it is estimated to still be the fifth-largest Australian wheat export total on record, with China accounting for 26% of shipments so far in the 2022/23 season. FAS also estimates Argentine wheat production in the 2023/24 season to reach 19.5MMT, a rebound from the 2022/23 forecast of 12.5MMT, following a drought and a late frost that badly affected the previous harvest. However, FAS indicates that more rains are needed to recharge soil moisture profiles before the June planting window. Meanwhile, Argentine wheat exports in the 2023/24 season are projected to reach 13.7MMT, more than double the exports expected in FY 2022/23, and the third highest on record. Argentine wheat exports in 2022/23 are estimated at 5.8MMT, the lowest in the past eight years. Furthermore, FAS projects Argentine domestic wheat consumption for 2023/24 at 6.5MMT, practically unchanged from the 2022/23 estimate.
For 8 months of the 2022/23 season, from September 2022 to March 2023, Kazakhstan exported 4.68MMT of wheat, 11.4% higher than the same period in the previous season, with shipments mainly destined for Uzbekistan (2.34MMT), Tajikistan (676.3K MT), and Afghanistan (653.6K MT). However, in the February-March period, Kazakhstan experienced a slowdown in the rate of wheat exports. Lastly, according to EC data, in the first four months of 2023, Morocco imported more than 4MMT of European wheat, 1.4MMT higher than the result in the same period in 2022. Therefore, Morocco remains the key importer of wheat from the EU in 2022/23 MY.
