In W19 in the barley landscape, Stratégie Grains, in its May report, forecasts the EU barley gross harvest in the 2023/24 season to reach 49.9MMT, down 1.7MMT from the 2022/23 harvest, with winter barley accounting for 28.7MMT and spring barley corresponding to 21.3MMT. The downward revision is largely due to the expected reduction in barley production in Spain. In March 2023, Australian barley exports reached 777.82K MT, with feed barley amounting to 636.23K MT, down 30% MoM while malting barley totaled 141.59K MT, more than triple compared to February shipments. Australian feed barley shipments were mainly destined for Saudi Arabia at 285.17K MT, Vietnam at 82.36K MT, and the Philippines at 60.04K MT. Meanwhile, Australian malting barley exports were mainly headed to Vietnam at 32.62K MT, Mexico at 31.73K MT, and Japan at 21K MT. GrainTrade reports that as of May 4th, the Ukrainian area designated for spring barley decreased by 20% from 853.8K ha to 712.1K ha due to low prices associated with the crop. Moreover, as of May 12th, Ukrainian farmers had sown 3.58M ha of grain and legumes, with spring barley accounting for 736.7K ha.
The complete absence of barley in the schedule of ships from Russian ports is expected to lead to a gradual decrease in prices, as the new season approaches and the upcoming increase in sales offers from producers. It becomes clear to the market that harvesting in the Southern Federal District and the North Caucasus Federal District is expected to sharply increase the supply of barley for sale, which, against the backdrop of weak export demand, may drop prices even further. The Russian export duty on barley is expected to decrease from May 17th from USD 33.22/MT to USD 26.29/MT. The new duties are expected to be in effect through May 23rd. So far in May, Spanish barley prices increased by 0.26% to 290.83/MT, while other cereals in the Spanish markets have maintained their downward trend in the last week despite the drought and its imminent effects on the harvests. Turkish barley prices in W18 increased by USD 15.22/MT WoW, with May 5th registering a rise of USD 8.63/MT. Accordingly, Turkish barley prices during the week rose from USD 293.36/MT to USD 308.43/MT. Lastly, the intense hailstorm experienced on May 6th affected 70 ha of crop fields located in Chacapampa, Huaychulo, San Juan, Puquio, Santa Cruz, and La Unión, in the district of San Juan de Jarpa, in the province of Chupaca, Junín region in Peru. The Chupaca Agrarian Agency reported that, of the total affected and damaged crops, 90% corresponded to barley, broad bean, wheat, peas, mashua, and ulluco, and about 200 families were affected.
