1. Weekly News

Global

USDA Report Predicts Significant Increase in Global Apple Production and Exports for the 2023/24 Season

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Market and Trade Report forecasts a substantial rise in fresh apple production and exports for the 2023/24 season. Global apple production is projected to reach 83.7 million tons, with exports expected to increase by 10% to 6 million tons, driven by higher shipments from the United States (US) and Iran.The US is set to achieve its highest apple production in six years, with an estimated 5 million tons. China's production is also anticipated to grow by 500 thousand tons, reaching 45 million tons. South Africa is expected to recover from hail damage, with production projected at 1.2 million tons, a 75 thousand-ton increase.Conversely, the European Union (EU) and Chile are likely to see slight declines in apple production due to decreasing planted areas and poor pollination.

Moldova

Moldovan Apple Exports Rise Slightly in May-24 but Remain Below Five-Year Average

According to Moldova Fruct, Moldova exported nearly 15.4 thousand tons of apples in May-24, valued at USD 9.6 million. This is slightly higher than the 12 thousand tons exported on May-23 but significantly lower than the 31.2 thousand tons exported on May-22. From Jan-24 to May-24, Moldova exported 87.8 tons of apples, with Russia, Romania, Belarus, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan as the top five buyers. However, Moldova Fruct predicts that the potential for apple exports in Jun-24 is below the five-year average, as few export-quality apples from the 2023 harvest remain in cold storage facilities.

Moldova Exports Fresh Apples to India in 2024 Amid Russian Import Ban

In 2024, Moldova began exporting fresh apples to India, navigating challenges from Russia's import ban. Despite the small volume, India's higher prices were more attractive compared to Russia, even with complex logistics and stricter quality requirements. India's favorable demographics and rapid economic growth make it a reliable market. Ukraine, previously unable to supply apples to India, now does so through Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Leading apple exporters to India include Iran, which exports 10 to 15 thousand tons per month, and Turkey, which exports up to 30 thousand tons.

New Zealand

New Zealand Apple Exports to Decline by 11% Due to Cyclone Gabrielle

The New Zealand apple industry forecasts an 11% decline in exports for 2023 due to Cyclone Gabrielle, which affected fruit size. Revised estimates put exports at 18.9 million boxes after the harvest, reflecting size variations across different regions. Despite the smaller sizes, the New Zealand Apple and Pear Industry (NZAPI) assures that the exceptional summer conditions have resulted in apples with excellent eating quality and color, maintaining their popularity in export markets. Strong demand for New Zealand apples persists at the country's main ports as consumers appreciate their consistent quality.

Russia

Russian Apple Market Faces Stable Supply Amid Rising Prices

According to the Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Rusprodsoyuz Association, the Russian apple market is experiencing stable supply levels despite increased imports. Recent price hikes for apples are primarily driven by seasonal factors, reduced import volumes, and elevated prices of imported apples exacerbated by ruble depreciation. The average wholesale apple prices rose by 3.6% week-over-week (WoW) to USD 0.81 per kilogram (RUB 69.4/kg) in W24. The upcoming season is expected to see further price pressures due to increased production costs, influenced by fluctuating exchange rates and higher costs of protective gear, fertilizers, equipment, labor, and logistics.

United States

Washington's Apple Season Expected to See Stable Yields in 2024

Washington’s 2024 apple season is expected to stabilize due to favorable weather conditions. In 2023, the state experienced its second-largest harvest with 137 million bushels, a 32% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The upcoming harvest is projected to be slightly lower, with early estimates suggesting a yield between 120 million and 125 million bushels. Washington exports 30% of its apples globally, with Mexico and Canada as primary markets.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Apple Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Apple Pricing Important Exporters (W25 2023 to W25 2024)

Italy

In W25, apple prices in Italy held steady at USD 1.84/kg, unchanged from W24 and May-24 prices, with no month-on-month (MoM) change. However, there is a slight 0.50% YoY increase compared to USD 1.83/kg in the same period last year. The stability in prices despite seasonal fluctuations is attributed to balanced supply and demand dynamics during the off-season for apples in Italy. Despite economic challenges and import restrictions affecting export volumes to key markets like India and Egypt, domestic sales have remained steady. This YoY increase reflects ongoing market resilience and stable pricing trends amidst fluctuating global conditions.

United States

The wholesale price of apples in the US remained stable at USD 1.56/kg in W25, consistent for four consecutive weeks. This price stability contrasts with the previous week, where apple prices declined by 2.86% WoW to USD 1.84/kg. The lack of change in W25 is attributed to steady domestic demand amidst the off-season period for apples in the US. Additionally, despite no MoM change, there was a 1.79% YoY increase, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and higher production costs despite favorable production forecasts for the US apple industry, which is expected to achieve its highest production levels in six years, totaling an estimated 5 million tons.

Chile

Apple prices in Chile decreased by 6.44% WoW in W25 to USD 1.19/kg, down from USD 1.27/kg in W24. However, there was an 8.06% MoM increase and a 7.72% YoY decrease. The WoW decrease is due to short-term market dynamics, possibly influenced by supply or consumer demand fluctuations. On the other hand, the MoM increase indicates a rebound from the previous month's pricing, possibly due to seasonal adjustments or temporary market corrections. Despite the monthly increase, the YoY decrease suggests a broader trend of lower prices compared to the same period last year, influenced by factors like ongoing economic conditions, production costs, and market stability during the low season for apples in Chile.

France

In France, apple prices decreased by 7.14% WoW in W25 to USD 1.42/kg, down from USD 1.53/kg in W24. There is a 13.33% MoM decrease and a 5.55% YoY decrease. The WoW decrease reflects short-term market adjustments, possibly influenced by seasonal shifts in supply and demand dynamics within the French apple market. The MoM and YoY decreases indicate a broader trend of declining prices over both monthly and yearly periods, suggesting ongoing challenges such as economic conditions, production costs, and market competitiveness during the low season for apples in France.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhancing Resilience in New Zealand's Apple Export Strategy

In response to an 11% forecasted decline in 2023 apple exports due to Cyclone Gabrielle, NZAPI should prioritize several strategic actions. This includes investing in advanced weather monitoring, promoting smaller-sized apples as premium products, implementing sustainable farming practices, and enhancing supply chain efficiency. These efforts will bolster resilience against climate impacts and maintain New Zealand's reputation for high-quality apple exports.

Enhancing Moldova's Apple Export Strategy to India

Moldova's recent entry into the Indian apple market presents a promising opportunity amidst challenges from Russia's import ban. To capitalize on this, Moldova should focus on strengthening logistics networks, improving quality assurance measures to meet stringent Indian standards, and exploring direct shipping routes to reduce costs and transit times. Collaborations with local distributors and promotional activities highlighting Moldova's unique apple varieties can also enhance market penetration and competitiveness in India's rapidly growing market.

Strengthening Global Apple Export Strategies for the 2023/24 Season

To leverage the USDA's projected rise in global apple production and exports, stakeholders should diversify export markets beyond traditional regions and target emerging markets with growing demand. Implementing stringent quality control measures, investing in modern storage and logistics infrastructure, promoting sustainable practices, and continuously adapting strategies based on market intelligence will be essential. These actions will help maintain competitiveness, optimize distribution efficiency, and meet consumer preferences for high-quality, sustainable products, ensuring robust growth and resilience in the global apple export market.

Sources: Tridge, Freshplaza, East-Fruit, Agrifocusafrica, MXfruit, Kvedomosti