1. Weekly News

Global

Global Apple and Pear Production Set to Increase in 2023/24

Global apple and pear production is expected to increase in the 2023/24 campaign, mainly due to larger harvests in China. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts apple production to reach 83.7 million tons, a 1% year-over-year (YoY) growth, and pear production to hit 25.2 million tons, a 1.1% YoY increase. China, the world's leading apple producer, is expected to produce 45 million metric tons (mmt) of apples, up from 44.5 mmt in 2022/23. This boost will enable China to increase its exports by nearly 100 thousand metric tons (mt) to Vietnam, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Nepal. The United States (US) is expected to contribute 5 mmt to the overall increase. Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) harvest is projected to fall to 12.2 mmt due to low temperatures and poor pollination in primary-producing countries. Despite this decline, the EU will remain the world's leading apple exporter, ahead of the US and China.

India

Surge in India's Apple Imports Amid Rising Demand in the 2023/24 Season

India's fresh apple imports surged by over 70% in the first nine months of the 2023/24 crop year (Jul-23 to Mar-24), reaching a record 510 thousand mt. This growth is driven by the increasing demand for healthier foods among India's growing population and the limited transport infrastructure that hinders the movement of domestic apples from the north to other regions. Apple imports from Iran and the US have seen significant growth, with Iran nearly doubling its share in the 2023/24 season. To address low-cost Iranian apples evading tariffs, India set a minimum import price in May-23, which affected domestic apple prices. However, the Iranian government imposed an export duty on apples in Mar-24 due to low domestic supply and high prices, potentially slowing shipments in the coming months. Other leading suppliers to India include the EU, Turkey, and South Africa, but lower production, rising shipping costs, and delays have limited increases from these regions.

Russia

North Korea and Russia Consider Expanding Trade in Apples and Other Agricultural Products

North Korea or the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) may begin supplying apples and ginseng to Russia, while Russia could increase its exports of live farm animals and dairy products to North Korea. The recent negotiations between the head of Russia's Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance and the deputy chairman of the DPRK’s Committee for Quality Control of Import-Export Products and Quarantine highlighted the potential for expanding trade cooperation. Both parties discussed mutual supplies of vegetables and fruits and expressed intentions to send North Korean specialists to Russia for training and experience exchange.

South Korea

Korean Government Predicts Strong Apple and Pear Yields for 2024

The Korean government reports that apple and pear crops are progressing well in 2024. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) held an inspection meeting and predicted better-than-average yields for the early-maturing 'Hongro' apples and similar yields for the mid-late-maturing 'Fuji' apples. Pests and diseases, such as fire blight and black spots, are not expected to impact apple production. The ministry will focus on addressing meteorological disasters and minimizing the spread of pests and diseases this summer. Plans include inspecting disaster prevention facilities and strengthening drainage system maintenance. The ministry urges organizations to minimize damage by disseminating information, monitoring weather forecasts, and applying pesticides before the rainy season.

United States

US Apple Industry Set for Strong 2024 Season with Increased Production and Exports

The US apple industry is poised for a strong 2024 season due to favorable weather and strategic market expansions. The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service reports a significant production increase, reaching 5 million tons, the highest level in six years. Washington State, the leading apple producer, saw a 25% increase in yields, with its 2023 crop yielding 137 million bushels, the second-largest in the state’s history. Michigan also contributed to the production boost, supporting strong domestic numbers. The apple industry's outlook is positive, with US shipments expected to increase by 274 thousand tons, reaching 885 thousand tons. Washington State, which exports about 30% of its apples globally, has seen significant growth in markets like India.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Apple Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Apple Pricing Important Exporters (W26 2023 to W26 2024)

Italy

In W26, apple prices in Italy remained steady at USD 1.84 per kilogram (kg), unchanged from W24 prices, with a 2.86% month-on-month (MoM) decrease. This stability is due to balanced supply and demand during the off-season. Despite economic challenges and export restrictions to primary markets like India and Egypt, domestic sales have been consistent.

United States

The wholesale price of apples has remained steady at USD 1.56/kg in W26, unchanged since May-24. This stability contrasts with earlier fluctuations, such as the 2.86% week-over-week (WoW) decline to USD 1.84/kg. The steadiness in W26 is due to consistent domestic demand during the off-season for apples in the US. Despite no MoM change, a 1.79% YoY increase reflects inflationary pressures and higher production costs. Favorable production forecasts for the US apple industry, predicting the highest production levels in six years at an estimated 5 million tons, have also contributed to price stability.

Chile

In Chile, apple prices increased by 3.17% WoW to USD 1.22/kg in W26. However, there is a 5.4% MoM decrease, which is due to seasonal fluctuations and varying supply dynamics in the Chilean market. Despite the monthly decline, the weekly increase reflects short-term demand patterns and supply adjustments in response to market conditions, highlighting the volatility typical in agricultural markets.

France

Apple prices in France have rebounded to the level of W24 after a decrease in W25, increasing by 7.69% WoW in W26. This price uptick reflects temporary market adjustments driven by renewed demand or improved supply conditions. Despite the weekly increase, there is no MoM change, indicating stability in pricing trends over the past month.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthening Disaster Preparedness for Korean Apple and Pear Crops in 2024

To ensure robust apple and pear yields in 2024, MAFRA should intensify inspections of disaster prevention facilities and enhance drainage systems to mitigate the impact of meteorological disasters. The ministry should actively disseminate weather forecast updates, monitor pest and disease developments, and encourage timely pesticide applications. Collaborating with agricultural organizations to educate farmers on preventive measures will help minimize crop damage and maintain high production levels.

Boosting Export Strategies for the US Apple Industry’s Record 2024 Season

The US apple industry should enhance export strategies to capitalize on the projected 2024 production increase. Focus on expanding market presence in high-growth regions like India and diversifying into other emerging markets. Strengthen partnerships with international distributors, leverage trade agreements, and promote the superior quality of US apples through targeted marketing campaigns. Collaborate with the USDA and local agricultural bodies to ensure compliance with international standards and streamline export logistics, ensuring a seamless supply chain from orchards to global markets.

Strengthening Domestic Apple Distribution to Reduce Import Dependency

To address the surge in apple imports and support domestic producers, India should invest in improving transport infrastructure for the efficient movement of apples from northern regions to other parts of the country. Establishing cold chain logistics, enhancing storage facilities, and upgrading road and rail networks can help maintain the quality of domestic apples and reduce dependency on imports. Additionally, implementing stricter quality controls and marketing campaigns to promote locally grown apples can boost consumer preference for domestic produce. Collaborative efforts with agricultural bodies to monitor and adjust import policies can further stabilize the market, ensuring fair competition and protecting local farmers.

Sources:Tridge, Portaldelcampo, Kvedomosti, MXfruit, Agropopular, Freshplaza