W26: Apple Update

In W26 in the apple landscape, Italy is expected to become the global apple export leader in 2022/23, surpassing China. There is also a high probability that Poland will overtake China in terms of apple export volumes. The 2022/23 apple season in Georgia shows similar export volumes and prices compared to the 2021/22 season, which was a good season in terms of prices and volumes. So far in the 2022/23 season, Georgia has exported just over 11 thousand mt of fresh apples at an average export price of USD 0.64/kg. However, Georgia imported only 2.7 thousand mt of apples, which is the lowest figure in at least nine seasons. This can be explained by a decrease in demand for foreign apples due to an increase in local supply.

Ukraine exported over 22 thousand mt of apples in the first five months of 2023, a 10 thousand mt YoY decrease. However, only 2 thousand mt of Ukrainian apples were exported in April-May 2023, due to a reduction in export-quality apples and a gradual increase in domestic apple prices. Despite smaller apple exports in 2022/23, Ukraine has adapted to exports in unstable conditions, expanding its exports to European Union (EU) countries and Africa. In 2023, the Middle East, particularly the United Arab Emirates (UAE), remains the largest market for Ukrainian apple exports.

India and the United States (US) have agreed to eliminate the 20% import duty on apple shipments from the US, which was imposed by India in 2018. This decision will have large repercussions in the global apple trade. The US was the main supplier of fresh apples to the Indian market before India imposed additional duties, with the US supplying up to 150 thousand mt of apples in some years. However, after the duty increase, imports from the US dropped significantly, reaching only 21 thousand mt in 2022. The return of US suppliers to the Indian apple market will have a very serious impact on supplies from Iran, Turkey and Italy. However, the volume of US apple supplies to India will not quickly return to previous levels. If Iran and Turkey reduce the supply of apples to India in the new season, more of their apples will be redirected to the Middle East, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. This can be considered negative for farmers from Ukraine, Poland, Georgia and Moldova, as they will face increased competition and additional pressure on the prices in the region.

Washington in the US, experienced a 21.2% decline in apple exports in 2023. As of June 18, 2023, Washington exported 18.4 million cartons of apples, 4.5 million fewer than in 2022. Washington has shipped 60% of its apples to Mexico and Canada, while the remaining 7.7 million cartons have been exported to other nations. Lastly, South African apple exports have grown more than 13-fold in the past five years. As of W21, South African apple exports to China were up by 27% compared with the previous season. Considering the 4,130 mt of fresh apples exported to Hong Kong, this season’s export volume of South African apples to China has already surpassed 12,800 mt.