1. Weekly News

Bangladesh

Bangladesh Faces Potato Price Surge in W28 Amid Production Deficit

Bangladesh's potato prices surged past those of coarse and medium-quality rice, driven by a significant production deficit reaching USD 0.51 to 0.55 per kilogram (kg). The Ministry of Agriculture attributes the price hike to a production shortfall that has strained market control efforts, even with imports. Stocks are expected to last only until Sept-24, creating a gap before the next harvest.

Once stable with cold storage and excess production, Bangladesh's potato supply now faces challenges. Import delays and production shortfalls are critical issues. Since Oct-23, only 97,220 metric tons (mt) of the approved 583,711 mt quota have been imported, with a monthly demand of around 600 thousand mt. High prices in India, a significant supplier, contribute to slow imports. Cyclones Michaung and Midhili caused heavy rain, damaging seeds and prompting early harvests of immature potatoes in Munshiganj, the top potato-producing district, reducing yields. Cold storage owners estimate production at 7 million metric tons (mmt), below the 9 mmt demand for table potatoes.

India

India Faces Potato Price Surge Amid Summer Vegetable Scarcity

The scarcity of summer vegetables in India has increased consumer demand for potatoes. Potatoes have sustained high post-harvest prices since Mar- 24 due to a slight decline in annual production to 58.99 mmt from 60.14 mmt in 2023, transportation challenges, and intense heat. The country's leading potato-producing states, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal Contribute nearly half of India's total potato output. Despite the onset of monsoon rains, persistent heatwaves in northern and central regions continue to elevate potato prices. This price increase has contributed to India's overall food inflation rate, which reached 8.7% in Apr-24, with rural areas experiencing a slightly higher rate of 8.75%. Wholesale potato prices vary widely across the country, ranging from USD 21.52 to 65.77/100 kg.

South Africa

Crop Damage in South Africa's Limpopo Province Due to Black Frost

Black frost hit crops in South Africa's northernmost Limpopo province in W28, causing significant damage to potatoes, tomatoes, and other vegetables, according to the Transvaal Agricultural Union of South Africa organization (TLU SA). Farmers also reported infrastructure damage, including water pipes. TLU SA warned of potential regional food shortages due to the losses. Growers reported severe black frost in areas including the Soutpansberg mountain region, Levubu, Marble Hall, Arabie, and Bela-Bela.

Ukraine

Ukrainian Potato Prices Declined in W28 Amid Abundant Supply

The 2024 Ukrainian potato crop price is rapidly declining due to abundant supply and sluggish sales. Producers are reducing prices to stimulate sales, but these measures have yet to yield the desired impact. New-crop potato prices stood at USD 0.27 to 0.39/kg in W28, which is 26% cheaper week-on-week (WoW). The seasonal increase in supply primarily drives this decrease. Potato prices are now 11% lower than at the same time last year, and producers anticipate that prices may continue to fall as supply increases.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Potato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Potato Pricing Important Exporters (W28 2023 to W28 2024)

France

In W28, the wholesale price of French potatoes experienced a notable surge, increasing by 28% WoW to USD 0.91/kg from USD 0.71/kg in W27. This is due to the start of the 2024 potato campaign in France, which encountered several challenges, including delayed planting due to excessive rainfall, lower planting densities, uneven emergence of crops, and significant pressure from powdery mildew. As a result, the final production figures for the season remain uncertain and are expected to rely heavily on favorable summer weather conditions.

Germany

Germany's wholesale potato prices surged by 6.78% WoW to USD 1.26/kg, rebounding from previous declines. The broader Northern European Producing Countries (NEPG) region, including Germany, has been affected by adverse weather patterns and hefty rainfall, which have disrupted potato production. This led to delayed planting and uncertainties regarding tuber formation and yield. Moreover, competition in the market is increasing with North American manufacturers and countries such as China, India, Turkey, and Argentina.

Pakistan

Pakistan's wholesale potato prices decreased by 3.70% WoW to USD 0.26/kg in W28. This price drop is due to quality issue caused by green potato black heart disease, which impacted Pakistani potato exports to Russia, declining by over 68% year-on-year (YoY) during the first eight months of the financial year 2023/24. Despite these challenges, Pakistan remains a major global player in potato production, ranking among the top 15 producers worldwide with an annual output of 8 mmt.

Egypt

In W28, Egypt's wholesale potato prices rose by 10.34% WoW and 26.15% month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.32/kg. This price hike resulted from reduced imports of potato seeds, which fell to around 110 thousand mt. This decline led to seed prices surpassing USD 2071.20/mt (EGP 100,000/mt) due to European monopolistic practices and production challenges. These issues delayed planting in Egypt, reducing the cultivated area and production. Efforts to mitigate the situation by stopping potato exports are counterproductive, as they could harm Egypt's hard currency revenue, disrupt international trade agreements, and lead to market losses.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Promote Seed Availability and Production in Egypt

Egypt should prioritize promoting seed availability and production to stabilize potato cultivation and ensure a steady supply of planting material for farmers. This effort involves investing in seed research and development, supporting local seed producers with subsidies and technical assistance, and diversifying seed sources to reduce dependency on a few suppliers. Egypt can enhance its potato yield and quality by balancing domestic seed demand with export needs. Key supplier countries like the Netherlands, France, and Germany, known for their high-quality seed production, can provide advanced seed varieties and technologies. The United States (US), Canada, Israel, and China could offer diverse seed options and innovative farming solutions. These measures will help Egypt strengthen its potato industry, maintain global competitiveness, and effectively fulfill international trade agreements.

Enhance Storage and Distribution Efficiency in Germany

Germany and other Northern European Producing Countries (NEPG) should enhance storage and distribution efficiency to address disruptions caused by adverse weather patterns. This includes modernizing storage facilities, optimizing logistics networks, and developing contingency plans for weather-related disruptions. Collaborating within the NEPG region to share best practices and coordinate responses to market challenges can strengthen the collective resilience of potato producers against external market pressures.

Facilitate Market Access and Export Opportunities in Ukraine

Ukraine should focus on facilitating market access and exploring export opportunities for its surplus potato production to stabilize domestic prices and enhance market reach. Streamlining export procedures, improving trade agreements with traditional markets such as Poland, Hungary, and Romania, and expanding into new markets like the Middle East and Southeast Asia could boost sales. Additionally, enhancing the quality and competitiveness of Ukrainian potatoes through support for small-scale farmers and providing access to market intelligence will help diversify sales channels and reduce dependency on domestic market fluctuations.

Sources: Nieuwe Oogst, Almal News, Campocyl, News24, East Fruit, Argenpapa