1. Weekly News

Belgium

Belgium's Seed Potato Area to Reach Nearly 3,200 HA in 2024

Belgian potato growers are increasing their production of seed potatoes, with the expected area of certified seed potatoes and self-propagated seed potatoes rising to nearly 3,200 hectares (ha) in 2024, a 41% year-on-year (YoY) increase. This growth is more pronounced in Wallonia, which sees a 58.8% increase compared to Flanders' 28.9% increase. The area planted with potatoes for consumption also increased by 5.8% YoY in 2024, with Wallonia showing the most significant increase at 11.1%. Belgium's total expected area for potatoes for consumption is 101,805 ha, with 56,549 ha in Flanders and 45,256 ha in Wallonia. This expansion is driven entirely by late storage varieties for the processing industry, as the area of early varieties is decreasing by 9.4% to 5,809 ha. Notably, there is an increase in the planting of Bintje and Fontane varieties, while fewer Challenger and Innovator will be grown next year.

France

French Potato Sowing Area Expected to Grow 11% YoY in 2024 Due to Increased Processing Capacity

Recent estimates show a substantial increase in France's 2024 consumption potato sowing area, with new projections suggesting a 7 to 11% rise YoY. Initially, Agreste forecasted a 3% increase to 158,700 ha but has now revised this to an 11% increase to 171,100 ha. This expansion could yield 700 thousand to 750 thousand metric tons (mt) of potatoes. The growth is due to increased potato processing capacity in Northern France, particularly in the Hauts de France region. Nord-Pas-de-Calais and Picardy are seeing the most significant growth, with 7 and 10% YoY expansions, respectively.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Hits Decade-High Potato Export Volume in 2024

Kazakhstan has achieved its highest potato export volume in the last decade, with exports totaling USD 31.7 million in the first five months of 2024, nearly four times the value from the same period in 2023. The total weight of exports reached 294 thousand mt, a significant increase from 108 thousand mt in 2023. The average price of exported potatoes rose to USD 644/mt, driven by the export of seed potatoes and reflecting a sevenfold increase compared to the previous year. Significant importers include Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Poland

Polish Potato Cultivation Area Forecasted to Increase by 5% YoY in 2024

According to the North-Western European Potato Growers' Organisation (NEPG), the area dedicated to potato cultivation in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and Germany is expected to increase by 4 to 6% YoY in 2024. In Poland, the Central Statistical Office projects that potato cultivation will cover approximately 200 thousand ha, nearly 5% more than last year, though actual production changes will depend on efficiency. The Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation reports indicate no significant drought impact on domestic potato crops from Apr-24 to Jun-24.

Ukraine

Ukrainian Potato Prices Declined in W29 Due to Increased Supply and Accelerated Harvesting

The price of new harvest potatoes in Ukraine is decreasing due to increased supply. Hot and dry weather in key production regions has accelerated harvesting, leading to a significant market influx and a downward price trend. As of July 17, Ukrainian farmers are selling new harvest potatoes at USD 0.19 to 0.36 per kilogram (kg), which is approximately 27% lower week-on-week (WoW). Experts suggest prices may drop further if sales don't pick up soon. Despite the current decrease, prices remain about 20% higher than the same period last year.

United Kingdom

UK Faces Decline of Small and Medium Potato Farms Amid Labor Shortages and Extreme Weather

Small and medium-sized potato farms in Great Britain are severely declining due to acute labor shortages and increasingly unpredictable weather conditions. The Brexit vote, aimed at regaining control over borders and laws, resulted in an exodus of EU workers vital to the agricultural sector. New immigration rules have failed to adequately replace these workers, creating a labor vacuum that local workers cannot fill. Additionally, extreme weather conditions, intensified by climate change, caused prolonged droughts and heavy rains, damaging crops and complicating farming. Recent trade agreements with countries like Australia and New Zealand have further pressured local farmers by flooding the market with cheaper imports, exacerbating the difficulties faced by domestic producers.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Potato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Potato Pricing Important Exporters (W29 2023 to W29 2024)

France

In W29, the wholesale price of French potatoes increased by 2.20% WoW to USD 0.93/kg from USD 0.91/kg in W28. This rise is due to the start of the 2024 potato campaign in France, which faced several challenges, such as delayed planting due to excessive rainfall, lower planting densities, uneven crop emergence, and significant pressure from powdery mildew. Consequently, the final production figures for the season remain uncertain and are expected to depend heavily on favorable summer weather conditions.

Germany

German wholesale potato prices maintained USD 1.26/kg in W29 but increased by 5% month-on-month (MoM) and 15.57% YoY. This price increase is due to the challenges in the Northern European Producing Countries (NEPG) region, including Germany, where adverse weather and heavy rainfall have disrupted potato production. These conditions have led to delays in planting and uncertainties regarding tuber formation and yield. The situation is further complicated by climate change, new strains of Phytophthora, insufficient fungicides, and the use of sensitive varieties for fumigation, raising concerns about the future quantity and quality of the harvest amid growing demand and increasing global competition.

Pakistan

Pakistan's wholesale potato prices surged 7.69% WoW to USD 0.28/kg in W29 from USD 0.26/kg in W28. This rise is due to rising inflation, and the government's efforts to control inflation have been unsuccessful. According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics, weekly inflation rose by 1.28%, bringing the overall rate to 23.59%. Consequently, vegetable prices in many cities have surged.

Egypt

In W29, Egypt's wholesale potato prices increased by 6.25% WoW and 27.26% YoY, reaching USD 0.34/kg. This price rise is due to reduced potato seed imports, which fell to about 110 thousand mt. The decline in seed availability, exacerbated by European monopolistic practices and production issues. These challenges delayed planting, reducing the cultivated area and production. Efforts to address the issue by halting potato exports may backfire, potentially damaging Egypt's hard currency revenue, disrupting international trade agreements, and leading to market losses.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Address Labor and Climate Challenges

Great Britain's severe decline in small and medium-sized potato farms due to labor shortages and unpredictable weather conditions necessitates urgent action. The government should consider policies to attract and retain agricultural workers, possibly through targeted immigration reforms or incentives for local labor. Additionally, investing in climate-resilient farming practices and technologies can help mitigate the impact of extreme weather on potato production. Supporting farmers with resources and training to adapt to changing conditions will sustain the sector.

Adapt to Market Fluctuations

In response to the fluctuating potato prices in Germany, Egypt, and Ukraine, stakeholders should adopt adaptive strategies to manage market volatility. Enhancing yield predictions and diversifying production methods for Germany can help stabilize prices amid adverse weather conditions. In Egypt, addressing seed import issues and exploring alternative sources or domestic production solutions can help mitigate the impact on prices. Ukrainian farmers should improve storage and marketing strategies to manage price drops and maintain profitability despite increased supply.

Develop Export Markets

Kazakhstan's impressive growth in potato exports highlights the potential for further market development. Kazakhstan should expand its export markets beyond current major buyers like Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to sustain and build on this success. Potential markets for diversification include neighboring Russia, which has a significant demand for potatoes; China, with its large population and growing food needs; and the Middle East, particularly countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where there is increasing demand for imported food products. Additionally, exploring opportunities in the European Union (e.g., Germany and the Netherlands), South Korea, Japan, South Africa, and Turkey could enhance Kazakhstan's export revenues and stabilize its potato sector against market fluctuations. Developing targeted marketing strategies and trade agreements with these regions will be crucial for expanding Kazakhstan's presence in the global potato market.

Sources: Landlord, Nieuwe Oogst, Agro Business, East Fruit, Farmer.pl, AgroPortal.ua