In W31 in the macadamia landscape, global macadamia production is projected to increase from 240 thousand tons in 2020 to 480 thousand tons in 2025 and 600 thousand tons by 2030. However, successful macadamia cultivation hinges on climate and ecological suitability. Vietnam has seen increased macadamia planting, particularly in areas with altitudes above 500 meters (m). The tree requires a subtropical climate, thriving within a temperature range of 12 to 32°C, with a flowering and fruiting stage optimal temperature of 18 to 21°C. The extensive growth period, shallow root system, and dependence on climate conditions for flowering and fruiting pose challenges. Various successful cultivation models have been established in different Vietnamese regions, yielding economic benefits. Vietnam's sustainable macadamia development project aims for a production target of 130 thousand tons by 2030, mainly focusing on the Northwest and Central Highlands.
The market penetration strategy for Kenyan macadamia centers on its unique differentiators compared to macadamia from other nations. The European Union (EU) exhibits a growing demand for macadamia, particularly organic variants, driven by EU consumers' heightened interest in healthy foods and natural cosmetics. Around 80% of macadamia nuts in the EU are consumed as snacks, while the remainder serves as ingredients in various products. Kenyan macadamia historically offered competitive pricing compared to major producers like Australia and South Africa. However, in recent years, Kenyan macadamia prices have nearly equaled those of other key origins, although quality concerns at the source persist.
Lastly, South Africa's macadamia industry is experiencing a robust 2023 export season, marked by a record volume of 9.89 thousand metric tons (mt) of kernel basis in the first half of 2023. Despite this positive trend, the sector faces challenges stemming from historically low prices attributed to increased production in South Africa and other countries, along with competition from China's burgeoning domestic output. The industry's growth trajectory is highlighted by its strong start to exports, particularly to China and the Middle East. However, prices have plummeted by 47% this year, significantly below the five-year average. This unprecedented decline is due to expanded global macadamia production and China's expanding presence. While low prices have boosted demand from China, South African macadamia farmers are grappling with profitability concerns. Despite the record export season, the industry's financial health remains uncertain, emphasizing the need for price recovery in subsequent seasons.
