In W32 in the barley landscape, barley prices in Russian ports experienced an upward trajectory. This is despite the recent export duty rate of USD 4.53/metric ton (mt) imposed for the first time since June 7. Notably, there has been a long-awaited shift in Free On Board (FOB) prices for Russian barley, which had remained stagnant at around USD 170/mt. However, these prices surged beyond USD 180/mt in W32. While various factors suggest the potential for continued growth, this trend is expected to be more cautious compared to wheat prices.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reports that the barley harvest in Russia witnessed a nearly 1 million metric ton (mmt) increase in 2023 compared to 2022. Barley harvest reached approximately 7.9 mmt as of August 9, a notable rise from the 6.96 mmt in the same period in 2022. This harvest was obtained from an area spanning 2.35 million hectares (ha), an increase from 1.8 million ha in 2022, accounting for 29.4% of the total barley crops.
The French Ministry of Agriculture expects the gross barley harvest in France to reach 12.16 mmt in 2023, an upward adjustment compared to the July estimate of 11.9 mmt. This revision reflects an uptick in the winter barley crop assessment, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year (YoY).
Lastly, barley cultivation is progressing well across the productive region in Argentina. However, the Agricultural Risk Office (ORA) identified four areas facing delays due to water shortages: Bahía Blanca, Bragado, Pehuajó, and Avellaneda in Santa Fe. This led to a below average total planted area. While Buenos Aires experienced a recent lack of rain, the crops retain good humidity and are developing normally. However, the most challenging areas are Villarino and Patagones, where water scarcity led to a significant drop in planting intentions, ranging between 30% and 40%. The ORA also indicates that if the estimated area is planted, it will result in 500 thousand (ha) less than the five-year average. The ORA clarified that most regions in the Pampean provinces are aligning with the average progress of sowing registered in the past five campaigns.
