1. Weekly News

Brazil

Harvest Wrap-Up and Weather Jitters Lift Futures

Brazil’s 2025/26 harvest accelerated into mid-August, with Safras & Mercado, a leading Brazilian agribusiness consultancy, estimating 94% completion as of August 6, with Robusta at 99% and Arabica at 91%. This harvest progress kept physical flows ample even as some co-ops reported localized delays. The cadence implies a near-term normalization of internal logistics and steady raw supply to exporters through Sep-25.

Short-lived light frost headlines and tightening United States (US) availability nonetheless jolted futures in W33, with Sep-25 Arabica up 1.4% and Robusta up 6% intraday. This bearish trend highlighted how thin buffers can transmit weather risk into prices despite advanced picking. Basis values in Brazil showed limited change, reflecting farmers selling at rallies and confidence in crop size.

US Tariffs Disrupt Trade Flows, Delay Shipments

The new 50% US tariff on Brazilian green coffee (effective August 6) is already altering trade timing and lanes. Brazilian shippers say US buyers are postponing liftings while they work down 30–60 days of inventories and await policy clarity, increasing financial strain on exporters. Brazil’s Jul-25 green exports had already dipped 28% year-on-year (YoY), and further softness into late Q3 is likely if US demand pauses.

Tridge expects more Brazil bags to be redirected toward Europe and Asia in the near term and for US differentials to widen for non-Brazil origins. Rabobank noted Aug-25 exports to the US are set to slow, reinforcing the rebalancing toward alternative destinations.

Colombia

Production Recovery Opens US Export Window

Colombia posted a sharp output recovery, with 1.37 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags in Jul-25 (10-year high for the month) and 14.6 million 60-kg bags in the last 12 months, up 18% YoY. Exports in Jul-25 reached 1.15 million 60-kg bags, a 12% YoY rise. This improved availability is advantageous for Colombian exporters as the US tariff on Brazil creates a temporary opening for Colombian Milds. Ports, such as Buenaventura, Cartagena, and Santa Marta, have been key in moving the higher volumes.

Local currency firmness and higher NY Arabica volatility continue to shape the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC) base price for the internal market. Additionally, the federation reiterates its guaranteed buying policy as a stabilizer for growers during tariff-driven swings in inquiry from US roasters.

Differentials Hold as Export Outlook Remains Uncertain

While International Coffee Organization (ICO) data shows Jul-25 weakness across indicator groups, Colombian Milds’ relative premium has held broadly steady into Aug-25, aided by origin-specific demand from US buyers reallocating away from Brazil. However, the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) 2025/26 outlook still sees Colombia’s exports slightly lower on structural production constraints, suggesting room for price-led rationing if differentials stretch too far.

Increased inquiries for microlots/specialty bound for the US persist, consistent with renewed interest as buyers hedge tariff risk with differentiated supply. However, the sustainability of that demand will hinge on the US retail pass-through.

Vietnam

Domestic Robusta Hits Fresh Highs on Tight Farm Stocks

Vietnam’s Central Highlands cash market surged again in W33, with spot beans broadly USD 4.42-4.45/kg (VND 116,800–117,500/kg), among the highest levels this season as farm-gate stocks run thin. Local quotes tracked a rebound in London Robusta while exporters scrambled for near-term coverage.

Despite the rally, official snapshots earlier in Aug-25 still showed robust domestic quotes around USD 3822.86-3860.71/ton (VND 101–102 million/ton), highlighting how quickly sentiment flipped as supply expectations tightened week-on-week (WoW).

Export Values Rise Amid Volume Volatility

High prices have supported export value in the first half of 2025 (H1-2025), but volumes have been uneven across months and destinations, with reports of sharp Aug-25 declines to the US/European Union (EU) as origin supply tightens. Meanwhile, national statistics for Jan-25 to Jul-25 cite a 6.9% YoY increase in export volume to 1.05 million metric tons (mmt).

Near-term, domestic tightness and strong internal prices are likely to keep Free-on-Board (FOB) differentials firm, with exporters prioritizing contracted shipments and delaying spot sales. This trend should persist unless London rallies further or on-farm selling improves after fresh arrivals later in Q4-2025.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (W33 2024 to W33 2025)

Brazil

In W33, Brazil’s wholesale coffee prices showed relative stability, down 0.94% WoW to USD 11.54/kg. Despite this, prices remain bullish, up 83.76% YoY, reflecting tighter nearby availability and weather-risk premium after early-Aug-25 frost headlines. Farmer selling was measured on rallies, and buyers reported higher basis resistance for prompt lots despite an advanced harvest pace. The move ended Jul-25’s soft patch and re-aligned domestic values with the rebound in global futures and a weaker flow of Jul-25 exports.

For W34, baseline expectation is for steady-to-firm domestic wholesale values as mills prioritize logistics and exporters triage shipment timing post-tariff shock in the US, which is keeping some coffee onshore and supporting spot pricing. Industry players should pay attention to intra-week volatility if real-denominated buying intensifies on currency moves or if frost reassessments surface.

Colombia

Colombia’s domestic wholesale prices firmed in W33, rising by 1.31% WoW and 58.11% YoY to USD 12.38/kg, tracking stronger NY Arabica and supportive foreign exchange (FX). Internal liquidity improved as exporters sought milds to cover US needs amid Brazil tariff disruptions, yet cooperative buying policy continued to cap volatility at farmgate.

In W34, internal prices are likely to hold firm with an upward bias provided NY Arabica stays elevated and the peso avoids sharp appreciation. Any widening of US inquiries for Colombian milds could keep differentials supported and filter into the FNC reference, though physical flow from interior to ports may stagger the pass-through by a few sessions.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s domestic robusta market surged to fresh season highs in W33, averaging USD 4.16/kg, an 8.62% WoW increase. Spot prices in the Central Highlands (Đắk Lắk/Đắk Nông/Gia Lai/Lâm Đồng) ranged between USD 4.43-4.46/kg (VND 117,100–117,800/kg) as on-farm stocks thinned and exporters lifted nearby coverage. The rally mirrored a strong rebound in London futures, amplified by tight internal supply.

In W34, wholesale quotes are expected to remain elevated as exporters prioritize contract fulfillment and farmers continue to pace sales. Without a meaningful increase in spot availability, FOB differentials should stay firm; any dip would likely require either a correction in London futures or signs of improved countryside liquidity.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Secure Coverage and Manage Exposure to Supply Risk

With Brazil’s Arabica and Conilon wholesale prices firming on frost concerns, tighter supply, and shifting trade flows after US tariff measures, roasters and importers should lock in medium-term supply contracts at current levels where possible. Exporters can also explore diversifying destination markets beyond the US to mitigate tariff-driven risks. Additionally, traders should maintain weather hedge positions as the frost-risk narrative continues to influence pricing sentiment.

Capitalize on Colombian Milds’ Relative Stability

Colombia’s domestic market remains underpinned by stronger NY futures and peso moves, yet the FNC formula continues to provide predictable farmgate pricing. Buyers requiring mild Arabicas should consider stepping up procurement of Colombian lots while differentials remain stable, particularly as US buyers are redirecting demand away from Brazil. Exporters in Colombia should leverage this demand by prioritizing quick-shipment milds to secure premium contracts in the near term.

Prepare for Prolonged Tightness in Vietnam’s Robusta Market

Vietnam’s domestic robusta surged in W33, reflecting limited farmer selling and a sharp rally in London futures. Given the scarcity of internal supply, exporters should accelerate contract fulfillment while prices remain favorable and avoid short positions without secured stock. Roasters reliant on Robusta for blends should diversify sourcing, potentially to Indonesia or Uganda, to buffer against further Vietnamese tightness in the weeks ahead.

Sources: Tridge, Cepea, FNC, Qahwa World, Communicaffe, USDA, Rabobank, Nasdaq, Reuters, Lao Dong, El Pais, Tea & Coffee Trade Journal, El Colombiano