W33: Grapefruit Update

In W33 in the grapefruit landscape, the global grapefruit production is expected to decrease by 2% year-over-year (YoY) due to unfavorable weather conditions and reduced production in China, Mexico, Turkey, and the United States (US). The world’s largest producer, China, is expected to drop by 50 thousand metric tons (mt), while South African grapefruit production is forecasted to decrease by 4 thousand mt.

South African grapefruit production is forecast at 420 thousand mt for the 2022/23 season, slightly up from the 416 thousand mt produced in the previous season. South Africa's grapefruit cultivation area has expanded by 18% over the past seven years due to increased demand in Europe, Asia, and Middle East countries. However, this growth is expected to slow down due to decreased demand and higher farming production costs. The United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) anticipates marginal growth in the grapefruit cultivation area in South Africa for the 2022/23 season, reaching 8.4 thousand hectares (ha) compared to the 8.3 thousand ha cultivated in the 2021/22 season. The primary grapefruit-growing region is Limpopo province, where the Star Ruby cultivar dominates, covering 88% of the total area. Additionally, there are other grapefruit varieties cultivated, including Marsh, Fe 1 (Jackson), Pomelit, Rose, and Redheart.

Furthermore, the projected grapefruit exports for South Africa in the 2022/23 season are 220 thousand mt, indicating an 7.56% decrease compared to the 238 thousand mt exported in the 2021/22 season. This decline is attributed to several factors, including increased production costs, higher shipping rates, and logistical challenges in the shipping process. The conflict resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine also disrupted trading patterns, leading to the suspension of grapefruit shipments to Russia shortly after the conflict began.