In W33 in the orange landscape, the global orange production is expected to decrease by 5% year-over-year (YoY) to 47.8 million metric tons (mmt) in the 2022/23 season. While Egypt is expecting an increase in its orange harvest, other regions such as the European Union (EU), Turkey, and the United States (US) have encountered production reductions for this season. Brazil's orange production is expected to fall by 179 thousand mt to 16.8 mmt in the 2022/23 season, affecting processing volumes and exports. China's output is projected to reach a record 7.6 mmt in the 2022/23 season, but exports are expected to contract due to rising domestic consumption. The EU's orange production is expected to fall by 13% to 5.9 mmt in the 2022/23 season due to unusually hot and dry summers in Spain and Italy. Mexico's production is expected to fall by 395 thousand mt due to a prolonged drought in the northeast region. The US orange production is expected to drop to the lowest level in over 56 years due to citrus greening disease and hurricanes impacting the oranges harvests in Florida.
Due to increased cultivation area and favorable weather, orange production in Egypt will increase by 600 thousand mt in the 2022/23 season. The orange export volume is expected to increase, with primary markets being the EU, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. Egypt's orange exports amounted to 1.6 million tons, totaling USD 774.4 million in the 2022/23 season. Morocco's production is expected to drop by 367 thousand mt due to poor weather and water shortages. South Africa is benefiting from favorable weather conditions and an expanded harvested area, leading to a slight uptick in orange production. On the other hand, Chile's positive weather outlook is expected to contribute to an increase of 10 thousand mt in its orange production, reaching a total of 174 thousand mt in the 2022/23 season. This increase in production is anticipated to be accompanied by higher consumption and exports for Chile.
Turkey's orange production is anticipated to decrease from 1.75 mmt in the 2021/22 season to 1.32 mmt in the 2022/23 season. This decline is due to freezing weather conditions during the orange-blooming period, affecting the overall production. Turkey's orange exports are expected to decline to 185 thousand mt in 2022/23, a significant drop from the 389 thousand mt exported in 2021/22. Orange exports to Iraq and Syria increased during the 2021/22 season due to maximum residue limits imposed by Russian authorities on Turkish citrus products. However, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has complicated citrus shipments to these countries. From Oct-22 to Apr-23, orange exports declined by 60% YoY, attributed to Turkish producers shifting towards the more profitable Russian market, reducing orange exports to Iraq, and Iraqi producers influencing financial institutions to reduce support for fruit and vegetable imports.
Furthermore, the orange imports into Turkey are projected to remain stable at 43 thousand mt in 2022/23 season, which is consistent with the previous two seasons. The majority of these orange imports are sourced from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). While Turkey's orange imports largely rely on its domestic production, importing oranges from TRNC serves as a means to provide economic and political support to TRNC.
