Weekly Product Updates

W33: Pork Update

Frozen Pork Ham & Shoulder
Published Aug 25, 2023

In W33 in the pork landscape, the Brazilian Association of Animal Proteins (ABPA) expects Brazilian pork production to range from 4.95 million metric tons (mmt) to 5.05 mmt in 2023, a potential increase of 1.5% year-on-year (YoY). ABPA also estimates 2024 Brazilian pork production at 5.0 mmt to 5.15 mmt, a potential surge of 4% compared to the 2023 estimate. ABPA expects Brazil’s pork exports to range from 1.20 mmt to 1.25 mmt in 2023, a potential surge of up to 12% from 2022, while Brazil’s pork export estimate for 2024 is at 1.3 mmt, a potential rise of up to 8% compared to the 2023 estimate. Additionally, ABPA expects per capita pork consumption to remain stable at 18 kilograms (kg) in 2023, aligned with the 2022 level and anticipated at a similar level in 2024. ABPA forecasts domestic pork availability at up to 3.85 mmt in 2023, with the same volume expected in 2024, a stable pork volume compared to 2022.

The Netherlands Enterprise Agency reports that Dutch piglet exports reached 3.43 million in the first 31 weeks of 2023, a marginal increase of 0.8% (27 thousand piglets) compared to the same period in 2022. Dutch piglet shipments were primarily destined for Germany (1.73 million) and Spain (1.20 million). Despite similar average quotations for piglets in Germany and Spain at approximately USD 89.61 per piglet, a notable shift in export destinations is observed, with Spain becoming a more significant market in 2023. Dutch piglet shipments to Belgium reached slightly more than 300 thousand until the beginning of Aug-23, a drop of more than 90 thousand compared to the same period in 2022. Romania registered a remarkable 37% increase in Dutch piglet purchases, acquiring almost 100 thousand piglets over a span of more than seven months. This uptick is attributable to Romania's struggle with African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks, which has impacted its piglet production.

The Swine Farmers of Ukraine reports that the pig carcass market experienced a 1% week-on-week (WoW) reduction in purchase prices in Ukraine during mid-Aug-23. W32's trading concluded with a slight adjustment in live pork prices, with operators lowering quotations by USD 0.014/kg to USD 0.054/kg. Notably, western regions saw a more pronounced decline, with an average of USD 2.21/kg. In the central and eastern regions, prices ranged between USD 2.25/kg to USD 2.33/kg, with marginal shifts of USD 0.014/kg. Meat processors in the central and eastern regions attribute the slight price change to constrained slaughter pig supplies, including lower average slaughter weights and occasional batch transfers affecting overall availability. The western regions experienced a less severe live pork shortage at the moment, yet buyers observed a seasonal decrease in supply. Some processors note slightly subdued trade activity, exerting downward pressure on both chilled pork carcass and carcass prices. Nevertheless, despite regional price variations, the consensus remains that trade is proceeding relatively smoothly.

Lastly, according to the Ukrainian State Customs Service, Ukraine’s pork imports reached 6.5 thousand metric tons (mt) from Jan-23 to Jul-23, 5.6 times less than in the same period in 2022. Ukraine’s pork import value reached USD 14.7 million in the first seven months of 2023, 2.1 times less than in the same period in 2022. Pork imports were primarily sourced from Denmark (42.8%), the Netherlands (20.5%), and Spain (11.4%). Meanwhile, Ukrainian pork exports reached 434 mt, valued at USD 1.3 million in the Jan-23 to Jul-23 period, an increase of 83.1% in volume and 320% in value compared to the same period in 2023. Ukraine’s pork shipments were primarily destined for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (47.2%), Hong Kong (38.7%), and Bahrain (8.2%) in the first seven months of 2023. 

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