In W35 in the rice landscape, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade of India reported that the Indian government allowed limited supplies of non-basmati white rice exports to Bhutan, Mauritius, and Singapore. India, the world's largest rice exporter, banned white rice exports, except basmati, at the end of Jul-23 to bolster domestic supply and stabilize retail prices. This non-basmati white rice export quota permits 79 thousand metric tons (mt) to be shipped to Bhutan, 50 thousand mt to Singapore, and 14 thousand mt to Mauritius. The National Cooperative Export Company of the Government of India will facilitate the exports. This decision comes after appeals from Singapore and several other nations to resume rice exports from India.
Thailand, the world's second-largest rice exporter, aims to export 8 million metric tons (mmt) of rice in 2023. Thailand’s rice exports reached 5.29 mmt as of August 29, a significant 12% increase compared to the same period in 2022. Thai rice shipments are primarily destined for Indonesia, Iraq, South Africa, the United States (US), and China.
The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) reports that rice export prices exhibited notable fluctuations in recent trading weeks. The rice export price from Vietnam continued to rise in W35, ranging from USD 628/mt to USD 643/mt. The price for 5% broken rice stood at USD 643/mt, while 25% broken rice traded at USD 628/mt. Vietnam's rice export prices are at a 15-year high and the highest globally. The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) attributes these price increases to a potential global rice supply deficit, resulting in sharp price hikes. Amid low global rice inventories, sentiments related to restrictions on rice exports are amplifying price sensitivity, affecting approximately 50% of the world's population.
The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reports that rice price inflation in Indonesia surged to 13.76% year-on-year (YoY) in Aug-23, the highest level since Jun-12 when it stood at 16.22% YoY. This price surge was primarily registered at the producer level. BPS indicates that the price uptick was driven by increased grain prices, both for milled dry grain (GKG) and harvested dry grain (GKP), triggered by intense competition among grain buyers, from farmers to millers. This situation was exacerbated by a decrease in rice production following the harvest season in Jul-23. The continuous upward trend in rice prices has been observed since Aug-22, with records repeatedly broken. The Indonesian government aims to stabilize rice prices by increasing rice reserves at Perum Bulog, with stock levels approaching 1.6 mmt. Also, the Indonesian government plans to procure an additional 400 thousand mt of rice, aiming to bolster rice reserves to around 2 mmt.
Lastly, the paddy rice market in Brazil experienced robust growth, driven by strong external transactions and increased buyer interest, leading to significant price increases in W35. The CEPEA/IRGA-RS Husk Indicator, representing 58% of whole grains with cash payment, increased by nearly 11% month-on-month (MoM) in Aug-23. Recent days registered a steady demand for “free” rice, even those stored on producers' properties, as buyers seek to replenish their stocks. With reduced product availability, sales restrictions are becoming more prevalent, with upward price trend expectations continuing until the new harvest arrival, anticipated in the next six months.