W38: Lemon and Lime Update

In W38 in the lemon and lime landscape, the Egyptian citrus season, led by lemon production, begins on the 23, with growers already in the harvesting phase, awaiting official approval from Egyptian authorities. This season, the national lemon supply is expected to surpass the previous year, driven by high demand from African, East Asian, and European markets. Egypt's citrus season aligns with a global decrease in citrus supplies, contributing to expanded lemon and citrus cultivation. In the 2022/23 season, Egypt exported over 94 thousand tons of lemons, a 12% increase from the prior season, with the most exported variety being Adalia, primarily to Saudi Arabia. Lemon sizes will cater to diverse market preferences, ranging from 72/80/88 to 100/113/125/138. Competition among Egyptian and international exporters is expected to be robust but manageable due to a strong harvest.

The Asociación Interprofessional de Limón y Pomelo (AILIMPO) predicts that lemon production in Spain will reach 1.3 million metric tons (mmt) in the 2023/24 season, a 34% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The provisional balance sheet shows a final production of 1.018 mmt, reflecting the export, processed, or domestic market sales and volume losses. The 2022/23 balance aligns with AILIMPO's Sep-23 estimate of 1.09 mmt.

Peruvian lemon exports faced a significant decline, with a 22.4% monthly drop in volume from May-23 to Jul-23. In Jul-23 alone, the lemon export value totaled USD 3.3 million, a 27% YoY drop and a 23% YoY reduction in volume due to decreased demand from key markets such as the United States (US), Chile, and the Netherlands, which collectively account for over 70% of Peruvian lemon shipments. The US, in particular, experienced four consecutive months of declining lemon imports, with Jun-23 and Jul-23 seeing the most substantial drops. Additionally, adverse weather conditions, including extreme rains leading to anthracnose, and the high costs of fertilizers and fuels contributed to the crisis, resulting in poor production and a 500% increase in lemon prices in national markets.

The Central Reserve Bank (BCR) predicts that the price of lemon in Peru will gradually decrease in October and November and begin to reduce more rapidly on Dec-23. The increase in lemon prices by up to 69.8% is due to heavy rains in Mar-23 and Apr-23, associated with the El Niño Costero Phenomenon, which affected crop flowering between Jun-23 and Sep-23. The BCR's projections suggest that the value of lemons will be USD 4.14 per kilogram (PEN 15.7/kg) in Sep-23, USD 3.98.kg (PEN 15.1/kg) in October, USD 2.48/kg (PEN 9.4/kg) in Nov-23, and USD 1.74/kg (PEN 6.58/kg) in Dec-23.