1. Weekly News

Brazil

Paraná's 2024/25 Corn Harvest Progress Report

The Department of Rural Economy (DERAL) in Paraná, Brazil, reported that 60% of the first corn for 2024/25 had been sown in W39, up from 46% the previous week. As of W39, 31% of the planted areas are in the germination phase, while 69% are in vegetative development. Technicians rated 96% of the crops in good condition, with only 4% in average condition. Experts noted that corn planting is nearing completion in many municipalities, as producers are leveraging favorable soil moisture and prioritizing corn over other grains. Germination of the established crops is proceeding satisfactorily.

Southern Brazil Sees Progress in First Corn Planting Amid Positive Weather Conditions

As of W38, southern Brazil has planted 26% of its first corn crop, slightly ahead of last year's 25%, marking a 7% week-on-week (WoW) increase. Adequate rainfall has prompted farmers to begin planting actively. The National Supply Company (CONAB) estimates Brazil's corn production for the 2024/25 season at 119.8 million metric tons (mmt), while the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects it at 127 mmt.

Canada

Canada's Corn Import Update for the 2023/24 MY

Canada imported just over 1 mmt of United States (US) corn in the 2023/24 marketing year (MY). This is up from 651 thousand metric tons (mt) the previous year but well below the 2021/22 record of 3.7 mmt.

Russia

Chechen Republic Corn Harvest Update

In Russia's Chechen Republic, farmers began harvesting corn in mid-Sep-24, with 6.6 thousand hectares (ha) threshed by September 23. This resulted in a gross harvest of 23 thousand mt and an average yield exceeding 35 quintals per ha. This year, corn was sown on 11.4 thousand ha, primarily using domestic seed varieties. Regional experts noted favorable weather conditions allowed for an optimal harvest start, with completion expected in the second half of Oct-24.

Russia Increases Corn Export Duty Tenfold Amid Drought-Driven Crop Forecast Cuts

Russia has significantly increased the export duty on corn, raising it almost tenfold to USD 29.53 from USD 3.10, effective September 2. This move signals potential export restrictions amid lower corn crop forecasts due to extreme weather conditions affecting key producing regions. Corn exports reached 7 mmt in the 2023/24 season and will drop to 2.5 mmt in the upcoming season, primarily affecting buyers like Iran, Turkey, and Libya. The corn harvest is expected to decline by 29.5% year-on-year (YoY) to 12 mmt, marking the lowest yield since 2018 due to severe droughts in southern and central Russia.

United States

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report Preview

The USDA's upcoming weekly crop progress report is expected to indicate that the US corn harvest is 17% complete. Analysts anticipate that 64% of the corn crop will be rated in good-to-excellent condition, down 1% WoW due to mostly dry weather in the Central US. If confirmed, these ratings would be the highest for corn at this time of year since 2018 and for soybeans since 2020.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Maize Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Maize Pricing Important Exporters (W39 2023 to W39 2024)

US

In W39, US wholesale maize prices rose by 5.56% WoW and 18.75% month-on-month (MoM), reaching USD 0.19 per kilogram (kg), driven by heightened demand from new export sales announced by the USDA and significant purchases from China and Colombia. However, prices remain 24% lower YoY due to the USDA's upward revision of corn production and yield forecasts, estimating output at 15.186 billion bushels and an average yield of 183.6 bushels per acre, both higher than previous estimates. This increase in production outlook contributes to a more favorable supply scenario, impacting the YoY price decline.

Brazil

In W39, weekly wholesale maize prices in Brazil remained steady at USD 0.19/kg, although they increased 5.56% both MoM and YoY. Despite the near completion of the second corn crop harvest and a higher supply, domestic prices rose in Sep-24 due to a notable absence of many sellers from the market. These sellers recognized the international solid demand, rising corn prices abroad, and the US dollar's appreciation, which elevated port values. Consequently, Brazilian buyers reported difficulties in purchasing corn batches, even though some farmers had previously been willing to lower their asking prices in early Sep-24 due to storage constraints and cash flow needs.

Argentina

The wholesale price of Argentine corn remained stable WoW at USD 0.17/kg, but it declined by 10.53% MoM and 15% YoY. This price drop is mainly due to a decline in quality due to an outbreak of corn stunting disease that has spread from northern regions into Central Argentina and parts of the Pampas, adversely affecting corn crops. The disease has reduced quality, delayed input sales, and lowered planting expectations, resulting in an anticipated production shortfall of approximately 21% YoY, with the total planted area projected to decrease to around 8 million ha. Additionally, farmers faced challenges from spiroplasma bacteria and insufficient rainfall in Sep-24, further complicating the production landscape.

Ukraine

Ukrainian wholesale maize prices rose by 5.56% WoW and 18.75% MoM, reaching USD 0.19/kg in W39. According to Ukraine's Agrarian Council, corn prices increased due to solid demand from exporters. Contrary to market expectations, the anticipated arrival of new corn from Argentina did not reduce demand or prices for Ukrainian grain. The council noted that China has been actively contracting Ukrainian corn, while other importers such as Turkey, Egypt, Italy, and Spain have also begun purchasing significant volumes. European traders indicated that Chinese importers acquired at least 65 thousand mt of animal feed corn from Ukraine.

Romania

In W39, Romanian maize wholesale prices increased by 5% WoW to USD 0.21/kg, up from USD 0.20/kg. Prices also rose by 10.53% MoM. As Europe's second-largest grain exporter after France, Romania is facing a significant reduction in corn harvests due to one of the worst droughts in recent decades, affecting nearly 2 million ha of farmland. Corn output is expected to drop by 10 to 15% in the upcoming Oct-24 to September 2025 season, raising concerns about tighter supply and potential market disruptions.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Adapt to Climatic Challenges and Improve Agricultural Practices

Brazil and Russia should prioritize adapting their agricultural practices to mitigate the impacts of climatic challenges affecting corn production. This includes adopting resilient crop varieties, such as Pioneer P1197, a drought-resistant corn hybrid known for its robust root system and stress tolerance, and Syngenta's NK 6635, designed for high yields under variable moisture conditions. Investing in efficient irrigation systems will ensure consistent moisture levels during critical growth periods. Precision farming techniques, such as soil moisture monitoring and targeted fertilization, can optimize inputs and enhance overall yields. By enhancing data collection on soil and weather conditions, these countries can make informed decisions that lead to improved corn production. Markets like Southeast Asia and Europe can benefit from these efforts as they seek reliable sources of corn for animal feed and biofuel production.

Invest in Early Warning Systems and Crop Insurance

Brazil and Russia should invest in early warning systems to forecast extreme weather events, providing farmers timely alerts on droughts, floods, or frosts that may impact their crops. These systems could be developed with meteorological institutes and agricultural research bodies. Combining this with crop insurance programs would protect farmers from severe financial losses caused by climate-related disasters, ensuring stability in production. Governments and private insurers could offer policies explicitly designed for corn farmers, helping them recover from yield losses and encouraging long-term investments in resilient farming practices.

Strengthen Export Strategies and Address Market Dynamics

Brazil and Argentina should enhance their export strategies by diversifying their target markets and building stronger relationships with essential international buyers. For instance, both countries should focus on expanding exports to Asia, particularly to China and India, where demand for corn is rising due to increasing livestock production and food processing industries. Strengthening ties with Middle Eastern countries, where food security is a growing concern, could provide new export avenues. Investing in logistics and storage facilities will also help streamline shipping processes, ensuring that products maintain quality during transit. These efforts can facilitate access to underserved markets and capitalize on Brazil and Argentina's competitive pricing.

Sources: UkrAgroConsult, Specagro, Portal Do Agronegócio, Hellenic Shipping News, Grain Trade, Sinor, NoticiasAgricolas, Cepea