Weekly Product Updates

W41: Olive & Olive Oil Update

Sustainability & Environmental Impact
Olive Oil
Market & Price Trends
Published Oct 20, 2023

In W41 in the olive and olive oil landscape, world reserves of olive oil dropped to a historically low level of 770 thousand metric tons (mt) at the beginning of the 2023/24 season. This decline is due to a significant drop in olive oil production to 2.78 mmt in the 2022/23 season from 3.66 million metric tons (mmt) in 2021/22. Spain, a key olive oil producer, also experienced a substantial reduction to 770 thousand mt from 1.62 mmt in the 2021/22 season. Additionally, experts anticipate that the new season will see olive oil production remain low at 2.77 mmt, including 900 thousand mt in Spain. Consequently, the total supply of olive oil in the 2023/24 season is projected to decrease further to 3.54 mmt, down from 3.82 mmt in the previous season, leading to a decline in global export supplies.

According to the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food, Spanish olive oil production for the 2023/24 campaign is expected to reach 765,300 mt, a 15% increase from the previous harvest but 34% below the average of the last four years. Link stocks for the current campaign, which began on October 1, are estimated at 257 thousand mt, a 43% reduction compared to the previous campaign. Furthermore, the analysis by the autonomous community reveals production increases in Andalusia (+7%), Extremadura (+101%), and Castilla-La Mancha (+29%). The primary factor influencing production is the recent weather situation, with high temperatures during flowering causing flower loss and reduced fruit set.

Between Sept-23 and Oct-23, Spain saw retail prices of extra virgin and virgin olive oil rise by up to 75% due to a decrease in production caused by adverse weather conditions. Similarly, producer prices for extra virgin olive oil experienced significant increases in Sept-23. In Spain, the producer price reached USD 8.98 per kilogram (kg), an increase of 116.5% year-on-year (YoY). Italy's producer price for extra virgin olive oil was USD 9.57/kg, showing a 78.7% YoY increase, while in Greece, extra virgin olive oil traded at USD 7.85/kg, a significant increase of 122.4% YoY.

In the 2022/23 season, Turkey exported table olives valued at USD 184.51 million, with earnings of USD 137.71 million from 75,295 mt of black olives and USD 46.81 million from 25,076 mt of green olives. These table olives were exported to 117 different countries. Over 90% of the exports were in packaged form, and there was a 17% increase in unit price in foreign currency compared to the previous season.

Lastly, Morocco has imposed restrictions on olive and olive oil exports due to a sharp 44% decrease in olive production compared to 2021. A circular from the Moroccan Customs Administration, dated last Wednesday, has included olives and olive oil in the list of goods subject to quantity restrictions. This export limitation is in effect until December 31, 2024. Despite the production decline to 1.07 mmt in the fall of 2023, the olive sector is expected to generate an estimated turnover of approximately USD 720 million, a 10% YoY increase compared to the previous year.

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