Weekly Product Updates

W41: Rice Update

Rice
China
Regulation & Compliances
India
Market & Price Trends
Published Oct 20, 2023
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In W41 in the rice landscape, the Indian government extended the export duty of 20% on parboiled rice until Mar-24, a measure initially introduced in Aug-23 to ensure adequate rice supply and manage domestic prices. This duty applies to all non-basmati rice varieties, with non-basmati white rice being a significant component. Rice exporters are advocating for a fixed export duty of USD 80 per metric ton (mt) on parboiled rice, as opposed to the current 20% duty, to streamline trade.

Indian rice export prices decreased in W41 due to the imposition of export taxes that raised the cost of Indian rice, affecting demand. The 5% broken parboiled rice is currently priced at USD 520 to USD 530/mt, down from USD 525 to USD 535/mt in W40. Similarly, the price of Thai 5% broken rice in W41 dropped to USD 585/mt from a range of USD 590 to USD 607/mt in W40, primarily due to a weaker Thai baht against the United States (US) dollar. However, Thai rice prices are still considered high compared to the usual price of USD 400/mt and demand remains quiet as the market anticipates increased supply in Nov-23 and Dec-23. Vietnam's 5% broken rice is offered at USD 610 to USD 620/mt, with prices remaining unchanged from W40.

In Indonesia, President Joko Widodo addressed the rising prices of rice, sugar, and corn. While rice prices have decreased in some areas, they remain high in others. To address this, the government decided to import 1.5 million metric tons (mmt) of rice from Vietnam and Thailand. The first shipment of 600 thousand mt is expected to arrive by December 31, aiming to stabilize prices and cover a production deficit of 1.2 mmt, partly attributed to El Niño.

Indonesia's National Logistics Agency (Bulog) has initiated a bid for 500 thousand mt of rice, including 300 thousand mt from Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, and 200 thousand mt from Pakistan. The successful bidder is required to deliver the rice to Indonesia by December 25. Indonesia has significantly increased its rice purchases and has now become the second-largest buyer of Vietnamese rice, surpassing China. In the first nine months of 2023, Indonesia imported 871 thousand mt of rice from Vietnam, a 16-fold increase compared to the same period in 2022.

In parallel, the Philippines, the largest importer of Vietnamese rice, has resumed its purchases after a month-long suspension due to a price ceiling on domestic rice. The Philippines lifted the price ceiling on October 4, and their rice imports from Vietnam in the first nine months of 2023 reached 2.4 mmt, valued at nearly USD 1.5 billion, marking a nearly 20% year-on-year (YoY) increase.

Lastly, in the 2023/24 crop year, Japan's rice production is projected to decrease to 7.3 mmt from 7.48 mmt in the previous season. The decline is attributed to high temperatures and insufficient rainfall, which impacted rice yields and quality. Additionally, rice consumption is forecasted to decrease slightly to 8.13 mmt in the 2023/24 season, down by 50 thousand mt compared to the previous period. The harvested area is also expected to decline to 1.47 million hectares (ha) from 1.497 million ha in 2022/23, reflecting a long-term trend of decreasing rice acreage due to aging farmers leaving or reducing their agricultural activities.

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