Weekly Product Updates

W48 Canola/Rapeseed Update: EU Rapeseed Forecast for 2024/25 MY Drops, While China Grapples with Rapeseed Oil Glut from Surge in Canadian Canola Imports

Crude Canola Oil & Rapeseed Oil
Russia
Published Dec 8, 2023
image

EU Rapeseed Production Forecast Cut to 18.6 mmt for 2024/25 MY

The forecast for European Union (EU) rapeseed production for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) is reduced to 18.6 million metric tons (mmt) from 19.5 mmt in the previous year due to sowing delays and unfavorable weather conditions in the west and south of Europe. Cold temperatures are expected to increase plant resistance, with the potential for snow cover to protect crops. However, temperatures are anticipated to rise again in Dec-23, accompanied by above-normal precipitation in some regions. Moreover, the European Commission (EC) reports that as of November 26, EU soft wheat exports reached 11.99 mmt, a 22% increase from the previous season's 14.68 mmt. Meanwhile, rapeseed imports into the EU decreased by 51% to 1.95 mmt due to supply delays from Ukraine, which exported only 1.22 mmt compared to the predicted 3 to 3.5 mmt.

Surge in Canadian Canola Imports Boosts China's Rapeseed Reserves

Increased imports of Canadian canola into China in Nov-23 have led to a surge in rapeseed oil supply, consequently lowering demand prices. By November 17, China's rapeseed reserves reached 421 thousand metric tons (mt), a remarkable 368% increase from November 3, attributed to the heightened imports in Oct-23. The country's rapeseed oil imports also rose by 64.08% month-on-month (MoM) in Oct-23, reaching 233 thousand mt, marking the second-highest monthly import figure in 2023. This resulted in a 5.64% increase in rapeseed oil reserves, totaling 395.1 thousand mt by the end of W48. Consequently, the average price of imported third-grade rapeseed oil in China as of November 24 was USD 1,230/mt, representing a 2.25% MoM decrease. The domestic market is experiencing an oversupply of rapeseed oil, contributing to a downward price trend for imported rapeseed oil.

Ukrainian Agrarians Complete Rapeseed Harvest with Robust Yields

Ukrainian agrarians have harvested almost 77 mmt of grains and oilseeds from 10.4 million hectares (ha), with five regions having already completed the harvest. The rapeseed harvest concluded with 4 mmt collected from 1.4 million ha, achieving a yield of 2.87 mt/ha. Additionally, almost 5 million hectares of winter crops were sown in Ukraine by the end of Nov-23, including 1.2 million ha of winter rapeseed.

Rapeseed Tops Russia's Profitable Crop List as North Ossetia's Exports Surge in 2023

The profitability of agricultural crops grown in Russia was calculated based on current data and market conditions. Rapeseed was the leader in terms of average profitability from Jan-23 to Nov-23, with a current profitability of about 43.9%, taking into account the producer price of USD 353.20/MT (32,500 rubles) and the cost of USD 245.61/mt (22,600 rubles).

Meanwhile, Russia's North Ossetia commenced the export of barley, rapeseed, flax, and soybeans to other regions of Russia in 2023. This marks a departure from the previous year when these crops were not exported from the republic. The North Caucasus Interregional Directorate of Rosselkhoznadzor reported that since the beginning of 2023, it has conducted quarantine phytosanitary control for the shipment of grains (wheat, corn, barley) and oilseeds (flax, rapeseed, and soybeans), with a total export volume of 153.4 thousand tons during this period.

By clicking “Accept Cookies,” I agree to provide cookies for statistical and personalized preference purposes. To learn more about our cookies, please read our Privacy Policy.