1. Weekly News

Brazil

Brazil’s 2024 Coffee Harvest Declines Slightly to 54.21 Million Bags

According to the National Supply Company (CONAB), Brazil’s coffee harvest for the 2024 crop year totaled 54.21 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags, a 1.6% decline from 2023’s 55.07 million bags. Arabica coffee accounted for 39.59 million bags (73.03% of total production), while Coffea canephora (Robusta + Conilon) reached 14.61 million bags (26.97%). The total cultivated area was approximately 1.88 million hectares (ha), with an average national yield of 28.83 bags per ha, a 1.9% decrease from the previous year. While Arabica productivity saw a marginal 0.2% increase to 26.2 bags per ha, Canephora experienced a 5.9% decline, yielding 39.2 bags per ha. The Southeast region dominated production with 88.08% of the total, followed by the Northeast (5.68%) and North (3.90%).

São Paulo Coffee Production Sees Strong Growth Despite Climate Challenges

São Paulo’s 2024 coffee production reached 5.44 million 60-kg bags, an 8.2% increase year-on-year (YoY), reflecting strong growth despite adverse weather conditions. The state expanded its coffee-growing area to 198.3 thousand ha, with 186.1 thousand ha in production, a 2.5% rise from the previous cycle. However, the area in development dropped by 27.5% due to biennial production patterns, where a fruit tree produces higher yields in alternating years. Productivity improved by 5.6%, averaging 29.2 bags per ha. Despite this growth, extreme heat and rainfall shortages from Nov-23 affected flowering and fruit maturation, leading to smaller-than-expected beans. The expansion in production area and productivity improvements are positive signs for São Paulo’s coffee sector.

Brazil Sets Record with Soluble Coffee Exports in 2024

Brazil's soluble coffee exports reached a historic 4.09 million 60-kg bags in the 2024 coffee year. This marked a 13% increase YoY and generated a record revenue of USD 950.05 million, a 35.3% growth YoY. Exports included four types of instant coffee: spray-dried, freeze-dried, coffee preparations, and extracts. Spray-dried coffee led exports, making up 71.5% of the total, followed by freeze-dried coffee at 22.8%. The top six importing countries were the United States (US), Russia, Indonesia, Argentina, Poland, and the Netherlands, collectively accounting for a significant share of Brazil's global soluble coffee market.

Summer 2025 in Brazil’s Southeast Brings Climate Challenges for Coffee Production

The summer of 2025 in Brazil’s Southeast region is expected to present significant climate challenges for both Arabica and Conilon coffee production, directly impacting the agribusiness and national economy. The coffee sector, a key economic driver, has been a major contributor to inflation in 2024. Adverse weather, including above-average rainfall and high humidity, may put additional pressure on domestic coffee prices. The La Niña phenomenon, confirmed with weak intensity, is expected to bring temperature anomalies and increased rainfall, especially due to the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). This excess precipitation, coupled with cooler temperatures, could foster fungal diseases like coffee rust and phoma fungus, negatively affecting productivity. While the cooler temperatures may slow vegetative growth and lead to more uniform grain maturation, the overall impact on supply and pricing remains uncertain.

Colombia

Colombia and US Highlight Coffee’s Economic Importance in Bilateral Trade

The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC) and the National Coffee Association of the USA (NCA) emphasized the critical role of coffee for both Colombian and US economies. Colombian coffee producers are the second-largest suppliers of unroasted coffee (green coffee) to the US. Coffee is essential to the US economy, with businesses involved in its transportation, storage, roasting, preparation, and sales across all states, generating 2.2 million jobs and USD 343 billion annually. With 70% of US adults consuming coffee weekly, a stable supply of high-quality Colombian coffee is vital for meeting demand and addressing inflationary pressures. Both organizations are committed to ongoing discussions on the benefits of bilateral coffee trade.

India

India’s Coffee Exports to Decline by Over 10% in 2025

India’s coffee exports are expected to fall by more than 10% in 2025 due to lower production and reduced stocks from the previous harvest. Despite record-high prices, the country, a major producer of Robusta beans, faces challenges such as high summer temperatures, water scarcity, and heavy rains, which have affected coffee yields. The Coffee Board estimates a harvest of 374,200 tons in 2023/24, including Robusta and Arabica varieties. The reduction in exports may further strain global coffee supplies, already impacted by weak production in Brazil, driving up future coffee prices. Key European buyers like Italy, Germany, and Belgium are among the top importers of Indian coffee.

Rwanda

Rwanda Raises Minimum Coffee Price by 25% to Boost Farmer Incomes

According to the National Agricultural Export Development Board (NAEB), Rwanda has set the 2025 farm gate coffee price at USD 0.48/kg, a 25% increase from USD 0.38/kg in 2024. The higher price reflects farmers’ investment in inputs, currency fluctuations, and competition among buyers. While last year’s minimum was exceeded in some cases, similar trends are expected this season. The move aims to incentivize quality production and plantation expansion, aligning with Rwanda’s goal to double coffee income to USD 160 million by 2029. Despite a 17.9% drop in coffee exports in 2023/2024, efforts to rejuvenate aging trees and increase yield per tree remain key priorities.

South Korea

South Korea’s Coffee Imports Surge to USD 1.38 Billion in 2024

South Korea's coffee imports reached USD 1.38 billion in 2024, an 11% increase from USD 1.24 billion in 2023, with import volumes rising 5% to 215,838 tons. The higher cost is attributed to rising global coffee prices, driven by drought and heavy rains in Brazil and Vietnam. Coffee remains deeply ingrained in Korean culture, with over 100,000 coffee shops nationwide.

Thailand

Coffee Prices to Rise in Thailand from February 1 Amid Higher Costs

Starting February 1, instant and ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee prices in Thailand will increase due to rising production, transport, and labor costs, according to the Thai Wholesale and Retail Trade Association. Instant coffee prices will rise by 5%. Consumers may shift to cheaper alternatives or reduce consumption, while coffee shop operators are expected to raise prices. The global coffee market remains under pressure as coffee prices surged in 2024 reaching record values, driven by adverse weather in Brazil and Vietnam.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s Coffee Market Share in US Decline Amid Global Export Challenges

Vietnam’s coffee market share in the US dropped from 10.71% in the first 11 months of 2023 to 6.96% in the same period of 2024, with a 32.1% decrease in volume and a slight 1.2% decline in value. Despite a global coffee price surge, driven partly by high shipping costs and logistics disruptions in Brazil, Vietnam's exports to traditional markets, including the US, saw a decline. However, new markets such as Spain, the Philippines, China, and Indonesia showed increased demand. Vietnam's coffee production was expected to decrease by only 5% in 2024, a more favorable forecast than the previous 10 to 15% drop.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (W5 2024 to W5 2025)

Brazil

Brazil's coffee prices saw a slight week-on-week (WoW) increase of 0.12% to USD 8.32/kg in W5, despite a small drop in the local currency BRL, as the currency appreciated against the USD. Month-on-month (MoM) prices surged 12.43%, and YoY prices jumped 43.70%, driven not only by exchange rate fluctuations but also by tightening supply. According to CONAB, Brazil’s 2024 coffee harvest reached 54.21 million 60-kg bags, down 1.6% from 2023’s 55.07 million bags. Additionally, record 2024 coffee exports surged 28.5% YoY, further reducing domestic availability. Prices are expected to remain high in the coming months as Southeast Brazil's summer brings potential climate challenges, which could impact 2025's crop yield.

Colombia

Colombia’s coffee prices rose 2.31% WoW to USD 7.52/kg and 3.58% MoM, driven by increasing demand amid tight supply in the region and other major producing countries. However, YoY prices remain 7.05% lower, primarily due to Colombia’s record 2024 harvest, which saw a 23% production increase, significantly boosting supply and exerting downward pressure on prices compared to the previous year. With supply still higher than in 2023, current prices remain lower than last season, though recent tightening in regional supply is now supporting a gradual recovery.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s coffee prices rose 4.55% WoW and 6.54% MoM to USD 5.05/kg, driven by tightening supply both domestically and globally. Vietnam’s 2024 coffee production declined by 5%, contributing to reduced availability, while supply constraints in other major coffee-producing countries have intensified market competition, further supporting price increases. As demand remains firm and supply struggles to keep pace, prices are likely to stay elevated in the near term.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Supply Chains

With tightening global coffee supplies and production challenges in Brazil, India, and Vietnam, coffee importers and retailers should diversify sourcing strategies by exploring emerging suppliers such as Rwanda, Uganda, and Ethiopia. This can mitigate risks associated with climate variability and supply disruptions while tapping into high-quality specialty coffee markets.

Expand Soluble Coffee Markets

Brazil’s record soluble coffee exports highlight a growing demand for instant coffee globally. Companies should expand their soluble coffee portfolios, particularly in markets like South Korea, Indonesia, and the US, where instant coffee consumption remains strong. Investments in advanced freeze-dried and premium soluble coffee varieties can cater to evolving consumer preferences for high-quality convenience products.

Invest in Climate Resilience Strategies for Farmers

Given the climate challenges in Brazil, India, and Thailand, coffee-producing regions must invest in climate-resilient farming techniques such as shade-grown coffee, drought-resistant varieties, and improved irrigation systems. Governments and cooperatives should provide financial incentives for farmers adopting sustainable practices to mitigate yield losses.

Sources: Tridge, Agraria PE, Agro Peru, All Africa, Nation Thailand, Nong Nghiep, Noticias Agricolas, Portal do Agronegocio, VN Express, Yonhap News