W51 Wheat Update: Global Wheat Prospects Brighten for the 2023/24 MY, and Canada Boosts Exports

USDA Projects 0.4% YoY Rise in Global Wheat Consumption for 2023/24 MY

The Dec-23 United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report indicates an improvement in global wheat consumption expectations for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY). Notably, higher estimates for feed consumption in the European Union (EU), Thailand, and South Korea are reported compared to the Nov-23 estimate. The USDA anticipates increased wheat consumption in China for both human nutrition and industrial use.

Global wheat consumption, which stagnated at 792 million metric tons (mmt) in 2022, is projected to increase slightly by 0.4% year-on-year (YoY), equivalent to 3 mmt in 2023. The global wheat production estimate for the 2023/24 MY has also risen to 783 mmt, influenced by higher yield expectations in Australia and Canada. Australia's expected harvest is adjusted to 25.5 mmt, up 1 mmt from the Nov-23 estimate, while Canada's forecast remains below the 2022/23 harvest at almost 32 mmt.

Canada Raised 2023/24 MY Soft Wheat Export Forecast to 20 MMT

Canada increased its soft wheat export estimate for the 2023/24 season, raising it by 11% to 20 mmt, reflecting a 2 mmt increase from the Oct-23 report. The production forecast has also risen by 2.13 mmt. The new ending stocks estimate is 3.5 mmt, higher than the Nov-23 forecast of 3.2 mmt. During the initial 19 weeks of the 2023/24 MY, Canada exported 7.9 mmt of non-hard wheat, a notable increase from the previous year's 7.04 mmt. China emerged as the largest buyer in the first three months, acquiring 536.4 thousand mt of Canadian soft wheat, while Indonesia ranked as the second-largest buyer, purchasing 532.9 thousand mt, a 164% YoY increase.

Wheat Export Forecast from Russia Reduced in Dec-23

In Dec-23, the wheat export forecast from Russia was lowered to 3.8 to 3.9 mmt from the initial estimate of 4.5 mmt. This adjustment is attributed to unstable weather conditions affecting southern ports, resulting in shipment rates 15% lower than the previous year. The Dec-23 forecast is also lower than the Nov-23 figure of 4.56 mmt. Currently, the top 10 exporters account for 73% of wheat supplies and 67% of grain supplies, while the top 5 exporters contribute 60% of wheat exports and 55% of grain exports.

Kazakhstan's October Wheat Imports Surged by 56% MoM

In Oct-23, Kazakhstan imported 137.6 thousand mt of Russian wheat, reflecting a 56% month-on-month (MoM) increase. According to the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, Soft wheat constituted the majority of the imports at 127.5 thousand mt, while hard wheat and seed wheat accounted for 2.7 thousand mt and 7.4 thousand mt, respectively.

Kyrgyzstan's Wheat Harvest Drops 25% YoY Amidst Abnormal Weather

The grain harvest in Kyrgyzstan is completed, revealing a 25% YoY decrease in wheat production. The National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic reported that, as of November 23, the total area of sown cereals increased by 1.7%YoY to 585.1 thousand hectares (ha). However, the actual grain harvested was 13.4% YoY less, totaling 1.7 mmt. This decline is attributed to a 28% YoY decrease in grain yields, mainly due to abnormally high summer temperatures during the growing season. Wheat yield dropped by 25.7%, and barley harvest decreased by 29.5%.