W9 Olive and Olive Oil Update: Olive Oil Prices Surged in EU, Spanish Exports Declined 35.8% YoY in 2023

EU Olive Oil Prices Surged; Portugal, Greece, and Spain Lead with 69% YoY Increase

Olive oil prices in European Union (EU) countries surged by an average of 1.5 times from Jan-23 to Jan-24. Portugal, Greece, and Spain saw the most significant increases, with prices rising year-on-year (YoY) by 69%, 67%, and 63%, respectively. Estonia followed closely with a 53% increase, while Cyprus experienced a 49% increase. Prices began rising across Europe from Aug-23, with Cyprus witnessing a notable spike in Jan-24 after a slight increase between Aug-23 and Oct-23, followed by a 19% jump in Nov-23.

Spain's Olive Oil Production for 2023/24 Season Exceeds Forecasts

Between Oct-23 and Jan-24, Spanish olive oil production in the 2023/24 campaign surpassed initial forecasts, reaching 775.3 thousand metric tons (mt), a 25% YoY increase. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA) indicates that oil mills produced 774.65 mt during the first four months of the campaign. Initially, the Spanish Government estimated production in Spain to be around 765.3 thousand mt for the 2023/24 campaign, representing a 15% YoY increase but still 34% below the four-year average.

Spanish Olive Oil Exports Plummeted 35.8% YoY in 2023

Spanish olive oil exports decreased by 35.8% YoY in 2023 due to a poor olive oil campaign, with a similar trend expected to continue in the current year. Despite the decline in volume, imports of olive oil from other countries saw a slight decrease of 2.3% annually. Spanish olive oil exports amounted to USD 4,501.89 million, while imports at USD 1,227.49 million. The significant reduction in production in Spain during the last campaign led to a decline in exports.

Türkiye's Olive Oil Production Revised Downward Due to Unfavorable Weather

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised Türkiye's 2023/24 olive oil production total to 190 thousand mt, down from an initial estimate of 280 thousand mt, due to unfavorable climatic conditions that impacted production. In the 2022/23 season, Turkish producers achieved a record yield of 421 thousand mt of olive oil. However, erratic weather last spring disrupted the fruit setting of olive trees, leading to a significant reduction in production. This is attributed to the decreased crop to the olive tree's natural alternate bearing cycle and stated that the yield per tree decreased by 55.7% YoY. The estimated yield for olive oil in the current production season is 179.3 thousand mt, along with 442 thousand mt of table olives, which is expected to meet both export and domestic consumption demands.

Peru's Olive Exports Declined 14.51% YoY in Jan-24

In Jan-24, Peru experienced a 14.51% YoY decline equivalent to 490 mt in olive exports in primarily destined for the United States (US). The number of recipient countries decreased from nine to six compared to the same period in 2023. Green olives constituted about 80% of the total volume, with over half exported fresh. Despite olives ranking among the top agricultural exports in previous years, Jan-24 saw a drop in export volume, representing 0.15% of that month's agricultural exports. The US received the majority of exports, followed by Brazil, Panama, Canada, Colombia, and Spain. The Callao Port Terminal served as the main shipping port for all exported olives.