World: Rabobank predicts better year for dairy farmers
Australia
Germany
Published Mar 15, 2024
Tridge summary
Rabobank forecasts a return to profitability for dairy farmers in major global producing countries, including the EU, the US, China, Brazil, Argentina, New Zealand and Australia, by 2024 and early 2025. This is due to expected higher farmgate milk prices, lower input costs, and increased dairy commodity prices. Despite recent struggles, South America is showing signs of improvement, with Brazil expecting better margins and Argentina's farmgate milk prices catching up with inflation. Meanwhile, the US, Australia and New Zealand are predicted to see growth in milk production. However, China's weak economic outlook could slow dairy consumption growth. In the EU, a positive demand outlook is anticipated as consumer confidence returns and inflation contracts. Milk prices are expected to improve in the first half of 2024, with prices in the main producing regions predicted to remain near €50/100kg, and the 2024 farmgate base milk prices will average around €47.5/100kg.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.
Original content
Dairy farmers in most of the top global producing countries could see a return to profitability as higher farmgate milk prices, lower input costs and increased dairy commodity prices are predicted to materialize over the course of 2024 and early 2025, according to Rabobank. Milk supply in the Big 7 – comprising the EU, the US, China, Brazil, Argentina, New Zealand and Australia – is tipped to turn positive in the second half of 2024, though the bank warns that production expansion ‘will take time’. Even in South America, where Brazilians dairy farmers have grappled with unseasonably dry and warm weather and the tightest production margins in years, and Argentina’s sector has struggled to reverse the milk production declines, there are signs of positivity. In Brazil, Rabobank predicts improved margins as the year progresses, a growing consumer demand for dairy and favorable costs of production with lower feed costs. Production is set to rise 0.5% above 2023 levels according to the ...
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