W3 Peanut Update: Red Sea Conflict Disrupted Global Export Routes, and Prices and Exports in China Dropped Due to Weak Demand

Red Sea Conflict Impacts Global Peanut Export Routes and Causes Price Surge in Europe

The ongoing conflict in the Red Sea caused disruptions in the global peanut export routes, affecting export costs and leading to a price increase in Europe. Traders faced losses, leading to a slowdown in peanut exports from Indonesia to Malaysia. The conflict has cast a shadow over export routes, impeding the initiation of new trade activities. Moreover, the absence of substantial deals and subdued demand in the pre-Ramadan period added complexity to the export scenario. In addition, China's disinterest in corn oil contributes to an overall tepid demand for peanuts, further exacerbating export challenges.

Peanut Prices in China Decreased by 10.67% YoY due to Weak Demand

Peanut prices in China stood at USD 1,333 per metric ton (mt) on January 17, 2024, showing a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month (MoM) and 10.67% year-on-year (YoY). The price is expected to remain downward, given the weak demand from oil manufacturers.

China's Peanut Imports Dropped 91.79% YoY in Nov-23, Sudan Emerges as Primary Exporter

China's peanut imports in Nov-23 totaled 2,330 mt, a significant decrease of 70.03% MoM and a substantial YoY drop of 91.79%. Sudan emerged as the primary exporter to China, contributing 2,100 thousand mt of peanuts. This reflected a 13.98% MoM decline and an 88.4% YoY decrease.

Additionally, the cumulative imports for the first 11 months of 2023 amounted to 653.87 thousand mt, marking a 1.53% decrease compared to 2022 and a more substantial decline of 34.80% compared to 2021. The conflicts in Sudan and the ample local peanut supply contributed to the drop.