In W39 in the hazelnut landscape, hazelnut prices in Italy have declined despite lower-than-expected yields in many regions due to hot and dry conditions. In contrast, Turkey, the world's leading hazelnut producer, has experienced a 30% month-on-month (MoM) price surge due to low yields and insect damage. While prices in Türkiye are forecasted to remain high in the short term, the global hazelnut market may rebalance over the medium term. Turkish prices could lead importers to consider alternatives like Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Turkish in-shell hazelnut prices surged significantly in response to Ferrero's announced buying price, rising from approximately USD 2.55 to 2.74 per kilogram (kg) in Aug-23 to USD 3.14 to 3.28/kg in W39. The announcement by Ferrero led to panic buying in the industry as concerns about potential shortages grew. Heavy rainfall in hazelnut-growing regions delayed raw material arrivals, further intensifying supply worries. Consequently, sellers are taking a cautious approach and holding back their products until market volatility stabilizes. Current estimates indicate a hazelnut production capacity of approximately 700 thousand metric tons (mt).
Furthermore, Turkish hazelnut prices have surged by 24% in the four weeks leading up to September 20th, reaching USD 790/100 kg (CFR Northwest Europe) due to concerns over supply shortages in Turkey, the world's largest hazelnut producer. While initial estimates of the 2023/24 Turkish hazelnut crop varied, recent reports indicate a significant reduction in crop size due to factors such as global warming, insect damage, and insufficient rainfall during the critical nut development stage in May. Some market sources suggest the harvest could be as low as 620 to 650 thousand mt, leading to increased prices and potential impacts on demand as hazelnuts become more expensive for buyers.
Lastly, hazelnut producers in Turkey are facing significant losses due to the invasion of the brown skunk insect along the Black Sea coastline. Producers reported losing USD 0.22/kg (TRY 6/kg) of hazelnuts, resulting in estimated damages ranging from USD 36.31 million to 108.93 million (TRY 1 billion to 3 billion) in 2023.