In W41 in the barley landscape, in its fourth forecast for the 2023 crop, the European Cereals Association (COCERAL) predicts the total cereal crop for the EU-27 and the United Kingdom (UK) to be approximately 289.8 million metric tons (mmt), closely approaching the 2022 harvest of 290.1 mmt. The forecast for barley production in 2023 within the EU-27 and the UK is 54.7 mmt, a decrease from the June estimate of 56.6 mmt and a notable decline from the 58.6 mmt of barley harvested in 2022. The drop in production is expected due to the drought forecasts in the region. Just in the UK alone, the Ministry of Agriculture estimates the barley harvest in the country at 4.85 million tons in 2023, reflecting a 5.8% decrease year-over-year (YoY).
On the other hand, according to the Cereal and Oilseed Trade Association of Spain (ACCOE), despite the unfavorable weather affecting supply, the prices of cereals in the Spanish wholesale markets declined in October. During the first week of October, barley prices decreased by 0.48% to USD 250.51 per ton (EUR 236.23/ton). Barley for malt production also witnessed a 1.31% decline, reaching USD 279.69/ton (EUR 263.75/ton). On the contrary, the French Ministry of Agriculture again raised its estimate for the 2023 grain harvest. The estimate for barley is 12.25 million tons, representing a 7.3% YoY increase.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of October 10, Ukraine had sown winter crops on approximately 3.7 million hectares (ha). Specifically, within the 2.583 million ha designated for winter grain crops, 171 thousand ha were allocated for barley. The leading region for barley cultivation was the Nikolaev region, with 25 thousand ha dedicated to it. The Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food has reported that since the start of the current marketing year (Jul-2023 to Jun-24) until October 11, Ukrainian grain exports have amounted to 7.42 million tons. This represents a decrease of 2.829 million tons or 27.6% compared to the same period in the 2022/23 marketing year. Notably, 640 thousand tons of barley have already been exported during this period.
In addition, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reports that the grain harvest has fallen short of expectations. As of October 5, Russian farmers have reported a grain harvest exceeding 133.5 million tons, a decrease of 15 million tons YoY. So Far, Russia has produced 22 million tons of barley. The Astrakhan region in Russia exported 240 thousand tons of grain and grain processing products in Sep-23. Products from the region were shipped to Iran and Turkmenistan. The primary types of grain crops exported included feed corn (113.3 thousand tons), barley (124.4 thousand tons), food wheat (2.7 thousand tons), rapeseed cake (8.1 thousand tons), and wheat flour (84 tons).
Additionally, as part of the national project "International Cooperation and Export," 40 tons of pearl barley were exported to Belarus from the Ulyanovsk region. This cereal shipment was transported by road and laboratory reports from accredited sources confirm the quality and safety of the products. Under the same project, a shipment of 3 thousand tons of new harvest feed barley was exported from the Ulyanovsk region to Iran via water transport.
Starting from October 18 to October 24, 2023, Russia is increasing export duties on certain grains. The Barley export duty will be USD 8.06/ton (RUB 772.6/ton), down from the current rate of USD 12.22/ton (RUB 1,166/ton). These duty rates are determined based on indicative international prices, which for barley currently stand at USD 169.3/ton. The Ministry of Agriculture adjusts the duty weekly based on indicative prices derived from contracts on the Moscow Exchange.
In Kazakhstan, during the first nine months of 2023, 121.44 thousand tons of grain, including 105.665 thousand tons of barley, were exported to Iran via the Food Corporation terminal in the Port of Aktau. The 2023 target for grain transshipment through the terminal is 400 thousand tons. In the previous year, the terminal had a total grain transshipment volume of 400.4 thousand tons, with the majority going to Iran, including 226.6 thousand tons of barley. According to data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, as of Oct-23, the country had a stock of 13.7 million tons of grains and leguminous available, a decrease from 18.54 million tons available in Oct-22. The barley stock in Kazakhstan as of Oct-23 was 1.96 million tons.
In August, Australia exported 350.5 thousand tons of barley, with a 4% decline from July. The return of Australian barley to the Chinese market was reflected in these numbers after China lifted protective duties in early August. China became the largest buyer of Australian malting barley in August, followed by Mexico and Vietnam. Feed barley exports were weaker in anticipation of tariff removal, but after the waiver, sales increased significantly. Australian barley supplies are expected to continue increasing, and China's market share could reach 85% as the new harvest season approaches.
Lastly, the Egyptian Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation approved the governorate's request to give a 50% economic support to wheat and barley seeds in Matrouh. The Agriculture Directorate in Matrouh has limited its need to 200 tons of barley and 150 tons of wheat. They have received an initial quantity of 50 tons of wheat and 34 tons of barley for the Matrouh Center, and these seeds will be distributed to farmers at specific prices starting on October 10.