December 2024 Outlook Report: Vegetables

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,548.52 per 40-foot container in Nov-24, a 1.02% month-on-month (MoM) increase. The rise is attributed to frontloading in anticipation of a potential International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) port strike in Jan-25 and expected tariff increases stemming from the recent United States (US) election outcomes. Meanwhile, the World Bank's fertilizer index dropped to an average of 119.72 points in Nov-24, a 3.05% MoM decline. This drop was primarily driven by falling urea prices, which offset moderate increases in potassium chloride and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices.

- Potato: Potato prices in France are influenced by increased production costs, including storage and treatment expenses, despite higher harvests in 2024, with prices expected to rise slightly in Dec-24 due to improved demand. In the Netherlands, prices rebounded in Nov-24 yet remain lower year-on-year (YoY) due to ample supply from enhanced harvests. However, rising production costs and farmers holding potatoes in storage will increase prices in Dec-24. In Egypt, strong international demand, particularly from Europe, has driven significant price increases, though farmers face challenges with low domestic prices relative to input costs, while winter potatoes are entering the market amidst efforts to expand export markets globally.

- Tomato: Tomato prices in Mexico are driven by supply shortages caused by adverse weather conditions, seasonal trends, and the Tomato Suspension Agreement, which stabilizes export prices; prices are expected to remain high through Dec-24 despite improved availability. In Morocco, steady price increases are supported by balanced supply and demand, with the country solidifying its position as a key exporter to Europe, particularly France, while facing legal and competitive challenges related to trade agreements and market dominance. In Spain, rising demand for fresh tomatoes and adverse weather in regions like the Canary Islands have pushed prices higher, with continued increases expected in Dec-24, supported by strong export performance and local agricultural funding initiatives.

- Onion: Onion prices in Mexico are driven by heightened export demand, particularly for white onions in the US, with limited supply keeping prices elevated until the new crop arrives in Jan-25. In Egypt, stable prices and government initiatives like crop intensification programs and expanded export markets (Vietnam and China) are key drivers, though prices remain lower than last year. In India, erratic price movements are influenced by government measures such as the "Onion Express" train, buffer stock management, and subsidized sales, with prices expected to decline in December as the new kharif harvest arrives.