July Outlook Report: Meat and Seafood

•Beef prices in Europe continue to fall due to seasonal trends but remain above 2022 levels. Meanwhile, Brazil’s prices also resumed declining due to a higher cattle supply, despite a notable climb in exports during May. A stronger Brazilian real (BRL) could somewhat disincentivize exports and put more pressure on the domestic market due to higher output. On the other hand, prices in the United States (US) continue to reach new highs on strong demand and ongoing expectations of lower production.
•Poultry prices saw a slight increase in Brazil as demand picked up a bit, but high supply is expected to keep prices subdued. Prices in China remained virtually unchanged.
•Fresh Atlantic salmon prices in Norway, the largest exporter of this product, dropped this June to their lowest levels so far in 2023. Moreover, prices are behind last year’s numbers, down 8% YoY, representing the first YoY decline since 2021. It seems that clarity regarding the salmon tax had a larger-than-expected bearish effect on prices, while demand remains subdued compared to historical averages.
•There is little change in shrimp prices in Spain and India, with demand relatively quiet. Globally, prices continue to fall on increasing production and strong competition between Ecuador and India, the world’s two major shrimp exporters. The outlook for the short term remains bearish, although there is not a lot of downside room since more declines would eventually disincentivize production.