China’s act on US soybean may pressure crude palm oil’s competitiveness — RHB Research

China’s decision to halt purchases of US soybeans for the current season is expected to depress soybean oil prices, thereby eroding the price competitiveness of crude palm oil (CPO), according to RHB Research. The research house, in a note on Wednesday, cited data from Oil World forecasting a multi-year high in the end-August 2026 stock/usage ratio for soybeans, reaching 12%. Furthermore, the global soybean stock/usage ratio is expected to remain at an extremely high level of 29.5% in 2026, indicating a sustained period of ample supply that will weigh on vegetable oil markets. “We have already seen the CPO-SBO (soybean oil) price discount narrow by 55% over the last three weeks, to US$42 (RM177.39) per tonne (from a high of US$263 per tonne in June 2025),” said RHB. Should soybean oil prices reduce further, this could result in demand for palm oil being destroyed, it said. “We saw this happening in the early months of 2025, when India switched its buying to SBO instead of CPO, ...