Heavy rains in Côte d'Ivoire have caused significant damage to cocoa plants, leading to a reduction in production forecasts for the main harvest. The survival rate of flowers and fruits is ranging from 60% to 70%, down from 25% due to flooding and damage to newly formed fruits. If the weather conditions do not improve, production could drop to between 1.3 million and 1.35 million tons, down from previous estimates of around 1.5 million tons. This could result in a sharp decrease in cocoa arrivals at the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro from January 2025, potentially leading to volatility in commodity prices and impacting the chocolate and cocoa derivatives industries globally.