Global: Concern about Asia persists, but Robusta and Arabica are once again looking in the same direction

Published 2024년 3월 1일

Tridge summary

The pricing of Arabica coffee has been positively impacted by the rise in Robusta coffee due to decreased production in Asia and increased demand. However, with Robusta now being more expensive, it has lost its positive displacement strength in relation to Arabica, causing a shift in the industry. Despite a predicted decrease in Robusta production from main producers like Vietnam and Indonesia, new coffees entering the market from April could put pressure on quotes. Brazilian conilon producers are advised to be cautious in the coming months due to potential weather changes affecting Asian production and the price curve.
Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

For a few months now, the rise in Robusta coffee has also helped the pricing of Arabica. The drop in production in Asia and the increased demand meant that the prices of this coffee gained prominence, even remaining above Arabica for a long period. But according to Gil Barabach, an analyst at Safra & Mercado, in recent weeks the London and New York terminals have returned to the same direction. "This means that Robusta has lost positive displacement strength in relation to Arabica and one of the factors for this is that Robusta is expensive in relation to Arabica and this is already moving the industry", says the analyst. It is important to highlight that the market has already priced and understood that the main Robusta producing origins such as Vietnam and Indonesia should offer less to the market in the next cycle, but the analyst points out that from April onwards new coffees will begin to enter the market and should put pressure on quotes. "There is still a lot to be done, ...

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