How is China’s growing milk supply affecting global dairy exports?

China, the world's largest dairy importer, has achieved its dairy self-sufficiency target set in 2018, increasing milk production by 10 million metric tons, resulting in a decrease in dependence on imports. This has significantly impacted the import of dairy commodities such as whole and skimmed milk powder, liquid milk and cream, whey, cheese, and butter. The largest decline has been seen in whole and skimmed milk powder imports, which were the world's largest. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service expects a further decrease in these imports in 2024 due to weak market demand and high domestic production. The imports of liquid milk and cream have also seen a substantial decline, affecting countries like Poland, Germany, Australia, and New Zealand. The import of whey is expected to decline in 2024 due to decreasing demand in both food and feed use. Despite increasing consumer demand, the import of cheese and butter is expected to decline in 2024 due to limited domestic production capacity and lower consumption in retail.